Belarus dictator accused of using death squads

Communism fell more than a decade ago and even Slobodan Milosevic was ousted in Serbia last year, but the era of dictators in Europe is not over. In one corner, political lunacy still reigns.

In the old Soviet republic of Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko, once the manager of a collective chicken farm, is facing imminent elections, but rigging is taken for granted and, worse, he has been accused of using state death squads to silence opponents.

A mysterious video – featuring a former prison director and two men who claim to have worked for the KGB – emerged last week, alleging that Mr Lukashenko approved the murder of an opposition leader and his associate in 1999. Two former state prosecutors, granted political asylum in America, have also made what the US State Department calls "detailed and credible" allegations about a presidential death squad. Colin Powell, the US Secretary of State, has accused the Belarussian authorities of abandoning "the transition to democracy and the rule of law".

Theoretically, the 47-year-old Mr Lukashenko, in power since 1994, could be forced out because an opposition candidate, the trade unionist Vladimir Goncharik, has been allowed to challenge him. And the normally fractious opposition even withdrew four of their candidates "for the sake of Belarus" last month to strengthen Mr Goncharik's hand.

However, observers believe that Mr Lukashenko will keep his position using a combination of vote rigging, gagging of the independent media, and intimidation of the opposition.

Opposition election posters have been ripped down by police. Last month, officials closed one of the main independent printing presses, and started a series of "tax inspections", which has led to newspaper computers being confiscated and production disrupted. The entire print run of the election edition of the newspaper Nasha Svaboda was seized.

The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), which is due to monitor Sunday's election, has complained of the "unending problematic treatment" of the independent press. Hrair Balian, head of the mission, described the denial of visas to two OSCE observers as "unprecedented".

The arrangements for voting are certainly unusual. Voters will be able to vote for several days before Sunday, with no records kept. The OSCE suggests that this makes their monitoring "meaningless".

Yesterday, Mr Goncharik called on supporters to take to the streets of Minsk after the vote. "Let us gather here on 9 September ... to defend our election win," he told a crowd of several hundred people in the central square of the capital, only metres away from Mr Lukashenko's residence. "If we can get 20,000 people on this square, then we can talk about democracy winning in Belarus," he said.

Mr Lukashenko is a survivor. After coming to power, he extended his term of office from five to seven years by constitutional sleight of hand. He has concentrated all real power in his office and has kept a Soviet-style economy, with market reforms non-existent. Alternative voices are scarcely heard.

Mr Lukashenko was enraged by last week's criticism by Mr Powell, calling his statement "insolent and unprecedented". He declared: "Their civilisation is only 300 years old, while ours is over 2,000 years of age. They haven't yet grown up to our civilisation. They can't behave themselves in a proper way."

In Belarus, it seems that the "proper way" is to rig elections and harass – perhaps kill – your opponents. Maybe worst of all from the opposition's point of view, however, is that few in Belarus seem to care. Not many believe that a Belgrade-style uprising against the President is likely. It is also unclear whether Mr Goncharik would win, even if Mr Lukashenko did not bother to rig the elections and harass the media and opposition.

Mr Lukashenko has successfully sold the idea that he represents stability in the face of the unknown. One student complained of the passivity of his fellow voters: "Out in the countryside they dig their potatoes, while in the city they cook jam and all sit down to watch Brazilian soap operas, as though that would resolve their fate."

Belarus has long been mired in political conservatism. Mr Lukashenko is eager to ensure that it remains a place of no change. One day, Belarus's turn for democracy may come. But, it seems, not yet.