Pakistan will not be the one to start war over Kashmir, Musharraf tells US envoy

Pakistan's president, General Pervez Musharraf, said he would not be the one to initiate a war, America's deputy secretary of state claimed yesterday.

Richard Armitage said he was "very heartened" by the Pakistani leader's position after flying from Islamabad to Delhi last night in the latest attempt by the West to pull India and Pakistan back from the brink.

Yet there is a sense that Mr Armitage is too late after both the US and Britainstiffened their advice to nationals to leave India and Pakistan.

On Wednesday, Pakistan turned down an Indian proposal for joint patrols by the two countries to monitor infiltration of terrorists into Indian Kashmir. Yesterday it was the turn of India to shoot down a proposal by the US, first revealed in The Independent yesterday, that there should be a joint Anglo-American monitoring force for Kashmir.

"It is absolutely unnecessary to have third-party monitoring," said an Indian Foreign ministry spokeswoman, even before Mr Armitage had a chance to broach the idea. India has rejected all attempts to involve other countries in the Kashmir issue, which it insists should be settled by itself and Pakistan alone.

Following the failure of a regional security conference in Kazakhstan earlier in the week to narrow the gap between the nuclear-armed neighbours – or to persuade them so much as to shake hands – there was a growing sense among Western diplomats that a fourth Indo-Pakistan war would be hard to avoid. "We're pretty unhopeful," said one. "There's nothing that shows this can be solved short of military conflict.

"Infiltration across the Line of Control is much reduced for the time of year. But to avoid war there has to be the political will to avoid it."

Normally in a two-week period in May and June, at least 20 or 30 infiltrators would be picked up by Indian security forces, but according to a well-placed military source in Delhi, no infiltration has been detected at all for two weeks. Despondent communications have been intercepted between militants in the Kashmir Valley and in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, complaining about General Musharraf's crackdown. "This is treason," declared the jihadi in the Kashmir Valley. "They play with our blood. If I was there [in Pakistan], I would have attacked Musharraf first. He has made a joke of this."

But Western diplomats still believe the political momentum is missing. One said: "India's Home minister, Lal Krishna Advani, said that infiltration was not the issue – the real issue was the list of 20 Indian nationals India demanded that Pakistan hand over six months ago. Pakistan believes that every time it comes to the point, India raises the bar."

About a million and a half Indian and Pakistani troops – 750,000 Indians and 500,000 Pakistanis – confront each other along their 1,800-mile border. They have been fully mobilised for six months. One retired Indian general said: "They can remain fully mobilised for another six."

The prospects for ending the long stand-off peacefully withered after 14 May, when terrorists massacred more than 30 people, including 22 Indian army wives and children, at a camp in Kashmir.

The massacre was swiftly followed by intensified artillery shelling across the Line of Control, cancellation of leave for frontline troops, an order to "read the war book" by the Home minister, and the raising of war readiness to the highest level. Earlier this week, one serving general claimed that India could begin fighting at three hours' notice. It is the presence of such fully- mobilised troops right along the border that worries the West. The contrast with the last major Indo-Pakistani clash, the Kargil mountain war three years ago, is striking.

"Kargil was very limited," said a diplomat. "It was concentrated in one region, and there was no general mobilisation so there was much less risk of the conflict spreading.

"Now they are mobilised all the way from the Himalayas to Sindh by way of the Punjab. There are shells in the tanks and bullets in the guns."

And there remains the fear that a resolute Indian attack could prompt Pakistan to use its nuclear weapons.

On Wednesday, General Musharraf declared he would never use them. "There will be no situation where resort to nuclear option could ever be contemplated," he told CNN. But he has changed his tune on the subject several times in recent weeks, and diplomats in Delhi continue to fear that he might use them.

"India has threatened to obliterate Pakistan if Pakistan uses its nuclear weapons," one told The Independent, "so Musharraf would be more likely to use them all at once."

Pakistan is believed to possess between 25 and 50 nuclear weapons. And both countries are in the habit of speaking about their use with hair- raising casualness. "You're dealing with people who think their nuclear weapons are just another club in the golf bag," said the diplomat.

The presence of Mr Armitage in the region, swiftly followed by the US Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, may inhibit the start of an attack on Pakistan, but after the two men have departed, bets are off. India will then have about a two-week window of opportunity to punish Pakistan for 12 years of infiltration into Kashmir, before heavy monsoon rains arrive, making warfare far more difficult.

And many well-placed Indians have persuaded themselves that they no longer have to worry about a Pakistani nuclear response. The thesis of an article by Seymour Hersh in The New Yorker several months ago, claiming that a team from Israel's security agency Mossad was ready to seize control of Pakistan's nuclear weapons in the event of war, has become the received wisdom in Delhi. American diplomats have rubbished the theory, making it more attractive still.

"These are the most dangerous statements being made at the moment," said a diplomat. "A lot of people are making the dangerous assumption that the West can step in and stop the war."

As Mr Rumsfeld said the other day: "These are sovereign states and they can do what they like." But whatever the peril, India's government cannot afford a failure after months of jingoistic rhetoric. "If India blinks," said one Indian analyst, "the BJP" – the ruling Hindu nationalist party – "is gone."

Some insiders remain hopeful despite everything. One retired Indian general believes that if the two weeks without infiltration stretches to four, and if India and Pakistan can reach agreement on ways to verify that Pakistan has degraded the terrorist infrastructure in Kashmir, India could make easily reversible confidence-building measures, and a peace process would be in place.