China’s stance over Hong Kong could lead to 'perpetual crisis', expert says

'Beijing is saying that it is no longer interested in the old colonial links, now it shows that Hong Kong is 100 per cent their own show'

China’s stance over Hong Kong could lead to “a perpetual crisis” as Beijing sparks more distrust and uncertainty in the region, an expert said.

As the commemoration of the 20th anniversary of the handover of Hong Kong from British colonial rule to China comes to an end, activists are growing increasingly concerned over the full implications of Beijing’s position on the future of the territory.

Speaking to The Independent, Professor Kerry Brown from Chatham House said the events of the last few days were a continuation of the tightening of Chinese grip over the territory in the last few years, which was “inevitable”.

Tens of thousands of pro-democracy protesters took to the streets campaigning for universal suffrage and against the degradation of civil liberties on the day of the 1 July 1997 anniversary.

Under the Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984 which led to the handover, Hong Kong was destined to become part of China as part of a “one country, two systems” principle.

Professor Brown said the agreement granting Hong Kong autonomy was always “very abstract and flexible” and that by becoming one of the world's great economic power, the importance of the territory diminished over the years, enabling Beijing to “nibble” at the agreement which “seems to grow weaker by the day”.

The anniversary also coincided with the inauguration of the new chief executive Carrie Lam, who is seen by critics as a puppet to Beijing.

But concerns among Hong Kong activists deepened when Beijing said the joint declaration was “a historical document” that no longer had any practical significance.

Chinese President Xi Jinping also warned the territory’s people that they can have autonomy as long as they remain obedient to the authority of the central government.

Professor Brown said this was not the first time China made similar remarks but that the “political symbolism” of President Xi’s comments were important.

“China is saying that it is no longer interested in the old colonial links, now it shows that Hong Kong is 100 per cent their own show,” he said.

While Hong Kong has nourished a culture of protests since 1997, Professor Brown said the relationship between the territory and mainland China will remain “a tough, strange relationship”.

He said: “There will be no panacea coming out of the sky but a perpetual crisis. Hong Kong wants to assert its own identity and they don’t have the autonomy that they wanted.

“It is not in Beijing’s interest to see Hong Kong not succeed but at the same time they are not willing to see Hong Kong decide what they can do.”

China’s contempt for the agreement that set out the blueprint over how the city should be ruled will also contribute to “water down” trust towards the growing regional power, Professor Brown said.

“Beijing is becoming a hard ball unilateralist and it is creating more distrust and uncertainty in the region. If in the short term the balance remains, in the long-term this could have a negative effect,” he said.

As part of the handover deal, the UK has “a continuing moral and political obligation” to Hong Kong but in recent years it is clear that Britain’s influence on the situation has faded.

The events of the last few days showed that despite the UK’s commitment to uphold the agreement over the Hong Kong handover, it has little say over the way Beijing implements a deal that seems increasingly different than the one agreed in 1984.

When Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson called for Hong Kong to progress towards “a more democratic and accountable system of government” he was quickly rebuffed by the Chinese Foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang.

“The British side has no sovereignty, no power to rule and supervise Hong Kong after the handover. It is hoped that relevant people will come around to this,” he told reporters.

Professor Brown said the UK was now preoccupied with its own internal problem and that in the wake of a likely future trade deal with China in the light of Brexit it would have to “pick carefully” its field of action.

For Professor Brown this is unlikely to mean standing up for Hong Kong.