US plans Baghdad military governor during occupation

Leaked documents point to radical approach for post-Saddam Middle East

The Bush administration is contemplating a lengthy postwar occupation of Iraq, in which a senior US general would become de facto governor of the country, oversee the dismantling of weapons of mass destruction and retain US control over Iraq's most prized natural resource, its oilfields.

The plan, modelled on the six-year occupation of Japan after the Second World War, was disclosed to The New York Times and splashed on the newspaper's front page yesterday – the latest in a long series of leaks concerning US military plans in Iraq, and a likely indication of deep disquiet in senior administration circles about the wisdom of invading and occupying an important Middle Eastern country.

According to the report, the Bush administration does not want to follow the post-war strategy it has pursued in Afghanistan – setting up a provisional government run exclusively by civilian nationals – because they want to minimise the sort of chaos that has plagued Afghanistan over the past 10 months and make absolutely sure any biological or chemical weapons do not fall into the wrong hands once Saddam Hussein is toppled.

Iraqi opposition groups, who have been heavily courted in recent months and encouraged to provoke a coup against Saddam, will therefore be left out of the picture for months, if not years. Even if they succeeded in toppling President Saddam by themselves, administration officials told The New York Times, they could expect a heavy US military presence to move in and take charge of the transition to a more stable, pro-American government system.

"We're just not sure what influence groups on the outside would have on the inside," one unnamed official told the newspaper. "There would also be differences among Iraqis, and we don't want chaos and anarchy in the early process."

In the initial phase, which could last a year or more, Iraq would be governed by a US military commander – possibly Tommy Franks, the commander of US forces in the Gulf who oversaw the Afghan campaign and is expected to do the same if the invasion of Iraq goes ahead. General Franks would in effect play the same role as General Douglas MacArthur in Japan after the surrender in 1945.

Administration officials told the newspaper they envisaged war crimes tribunals for senior Iraqi commanders. There would also be a de facto take-over of the Iraqi oilfields, representing 11 per cent of total world output of crude oil.

How the world would react to an occupation on these terms was unclear yesterday – there was little or no immediate reaction to the report – but the strong whiff of imperialism is likely to inflame anti-American sentiment in the Arab world and possibly beyond.

Many leading opinion-formers in the United States, including military commanders and the former chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, John Shalikashvili, have expressed concern about the feasibility of a lengthy occupation and its effect on US relations with other states in the region.

Henry Kissinger, the former secretary of state widely revered in the United States as a foreign policy guru, said last week that he was "viscerally opposed" to a prolonged occupation of "a Muslim country at the heart of the Muslim world".

President Bush was nevertheless likely to be feeling emboldened after the convincing "yes" votes in both the House and the Senate on a resolution authorising the use of virtually unlimited force against Iraq.

"The Congress has spoken clearly to the international community and the United Nations Security Council," President Bush said.

"Saddam Hussein and his outlaw regime pose a grave threat to the region, the world and the United States.

"Inaction is not an option, disarmament is a must."