For the first two debates, 20 candidates set about each other over the course of two different nights, a spectacle many said did not give sufficient time or opportunity for people to express their ideas. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) said it was sharply raising the qualification requirements for the third debate in Houston next month to thin out the crowd.
But for a miracle, the 10 who will appear at Houston’s Texas Southern University on September 12 will be Joe Biden, who is polling at 37 per cent according to a DNC average cited by Politico, Bernie Sanders (21), Elizabeth Warren (20), Kamala Harris (17), Pete Buttigieg (7), Cory Booker (3), Amy Klobuchar (3), Andrew Yang (3), Julián Castro (3) and Beto O’Rourke (3). On Wednesday, Kirsten Gillibrand, a New York senator, announced she was dropping out of the race after failing to qualify for Texas.
The qualifications for the third debate required candidates to have received contributions from at least 130,000 donors, with at least 400 unique donors per state in at least 20 states.
They also had to have secured 2 per cent support in a minimum of four qualifying polls. A number of candidates, including Montana governor Steve Bullock and Hawaiian congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, criticised those regulations. On Monday, Ms Gabbard termed them “cockamamie criteria”.
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Ms Gabbard and another candidate, billionaire Tom Steyer, had been very close to reaching the qualifications for the third debate and forcing the DNC to spread the event over two nights.
Mr Steyer, an environmentalist, had spent at least $12m (£9.8m) in adverts that helped him reach the 130,000 donor requirement, but he only managed 2 per cent in two polls. Ms Gabbard, a military veteran who has spoken out about the US’s involvement in foreign wars, had reached 3 per cent in several polls, but they were not those recognised by the DNC.
Steve Bannon criticises Democratic candidates: I consider these debates a 'summer replacement show that's not gonna get picked up for the fall'
On Wednesday, two new polls she and Mr Steyer had been relying on to push them over the line ahead of Wednesday’s midnight deadline, did not show any surge in support for any of the trailing candidates. Neither Ms Gabbard nor Mr Steyer crossed the 2 per cent threshold in the polls released by Quinnipiac University and USA Today/Suffolk University.
Ms Gillibrand had also been hoping for better news in the new polls; it did not appear. “I know this isn’t the result that we wanted. We wanted to win this race,” she said in an online video. “But it’s important to know when it’s not your time.”
In the Quinnipiac poll, Mr Biden, the former vice president, was in the lead on 32, with Ms Warren on 19 points and Mr Sanders on 15.
The single night format could have a dramatic impact on the race. Mr Biden, the frontrunner, has generally been reckoned to have had two bad debates and was strongly attacked in the first by Ms Harris, raising questions about his ability to think on his feet, and about the wisdom of his running at the age of 76.
The third debate will now see him confronted not just by Ms Harris, but also by Ms Warren, who is widely believed to have been among the strongest performers in the first events and has debating skills that combine emotional power with a forensic grip on policy details.
“We’re at the point when Democrats want to, and must, narrow the field. Debates help to do that,” said Larry Sabato, professor of politics at the University of Virginia. “At the debate itself, it’s always possibly a candidate or two may commit a gaffe so egregious that they are eliminated. I call it the suicide watch. It is rare but occurs from time to time.”
Jeanne Zaino, professor of political science at New York’s Iona College, told The Independent, candidates may increasingly feel the need to do something to stand out as the field narrows. She also said it was unclear how long the apparent non-attack agreement Ms Warren and Mr Sanders appeared to have agreed to would hold as the contest went forward.
“Now that we’re down to one debate, I think it will help voters put the presidential candidates in some sort of order,” she said.
Additional reporting by Reuters
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