The virtue of a good Vice

Once upon a time, the US vice presidency was little more than a four-year sinecure. Nowadays, the second-highest office carries daunting responsibilities. As John Kerry prepares to pick a running mate, Rupert Cornwell assesses his options

Even connoisseurs of American politics have probably never heard of Jim Johnson - which is exactly how he likes it. For the record, he was once a senior aide of former Vice President Walter Mondale. He is currently vice-chairman of Perseus LLC, a merchant bank and investment house with strong Democratic connections. In short, he is that quintessential Washington creature - the veteran insider who may be entrusted with the most delicate missions, who knows where the bodies are buried.

Right now, with the exception of his old friend John Kerry, Johnson may be the most influential person in the Democratic Party. With the party's nomination locked up, Kerry must find a vice-presidential running mate, at the latest before his formal coronation at the Democratic convention in Boston at the end of July, and preferably much sooner. Jim Johnson is leading the small team carrying out the search on behalf of the Massachusetts senator.

He is the perfect man for the job. "Discreetly, I would characterise myself as discreet," he told The New York Times the other day - which may qualify for under-statement of the year. He eschews e-mail. Though he does have a mobile phone, it is mostly switched off. He conducts his business not from Mr Kerry's office on Capitol Hill or the Kerry campaign headquarters, but from Perseus's suite of offices in downtown Washington, less than five blocks from the White House.

In the glasshouse of American politics, the process of choosing a running mate is that rarity, a selection made in genuine secrecy, in which the voters have no say, where Kerry's word is final. But no decision counts more in shaping public perceptions of a presidential candidate before his convention. And, sometimes, none has more impact afterwards.

For one thing, there is no better ticket for the top job. Of the last nine Vice Presidents (excluding Dick Cheney, who many say is the President), three have later moved into the White House, while three were their party's unsuccessful nominee, most recently, of course, Al Gore. Of the others, one (Spiro Agnew) resigned in disgrace; another (Nelson Rockefeller) was dropped from the ticket by Gerald Ford to placate Republican Party conservatives in 1976; while the third (Dan Quayle) vanished into obscurity.

Gone are the ritual humiliations visited by the staffers of the JFK White House on Lyndon Johnson. "Corn Pone" (a type of Southern bread) was how the young knights of Camelot referred to LBJ behind his back - even though Johnson's presence on the 1960 ticket probably enabled Kennedy to pick up crucial electoral votes in the South, most notably Johnson's own state of Texas. In turn, Johnson vented his own scorn on his increasingly unhappy Vice President, Hubert Humphrey.

One thing is certain. No longer is the vice presidency a waste of time. Yes, John Adams, the first Vice President of the United States between 1789 and 1797, described it as "the most insignificant office that ever the invention of man contrived". And yes, a century-and-a-half later, John Nance Garner, the first of Franklin D Roosevelt's three Vice Presidents, famously compared it to "a bucket of warm spit" - or, more exactly, "a bucket of warm piss", a phrase which, though unquotable in the newspapers of his era, probably makes for better science from the viewpoint of heat retention.

All that has changed. Al Gore was given wide responsibilities by Clinton, and even those pale beside the influence of Dick Cheney under the current President. Beyond a doubt, the hugely experienced Cheney (who headed Bush's vice-presidential search team in 2000) is the most powerful holder of the office in modern US history. He has been likened to a prime minister. His top staffers, some say, constitute a parallel White House, reaching into every corner of government.

Whatever the truth, the recent vice-presidential upgrade makes sound sense, when a President who is both head of state and head of government must cope with an ever more complicated foreign and domestic environment. At the same time, the demands of a voracious media have made the Vice President an increasingly visible, and thus central, figure.

The nightmare that haunts every Democratic vice-presidential search is the 1972 debacle of Tom Eagleton, the Missouri Senator picked by George McGovern to be his running mate. Alas, McGovern's men did not do their homework. Newspapers revealed that Eagleton had twice received electroshock therapy for depression, obliging the candidate to drop him from the ticket. McGovern never recovered from the episode, which set the tone for a campaign that ended in a landslide defeat at the hands of Richard Nixon.

As chairman of Mondale's losing campaign for the White House, Jim Johnson himself had a ringside seat at another failure of the vetting process in 1984, when the vetting team omitted to scrutinise the financial dealings of the husband of Geraldine Ferraro, Mr Mondale's vice-presidential nominee (who remains the only woman in US history to run for national office). Eventually, she gave a press conference that cleared the air; but for weeks the controversy dominated the campaign, which ended in another landslide loss.

Now it is John Kerry's turn. Normally, he would wait until almost the eve of the convention before announcing his choice of running mate. But 2004 is not a normal year. The November general election is still seven months off, but battle has already been joined, with unprecedented ferocity. Facing a massive Republican TV advertising campaign, and almost daily attacks from both George W Bush and Dick Cheney, the Vice President, the Democratic candidate risks being seriously outgunned. Party elders urge him to pick a running mate as soon as possible, to help share the task of fundraising, counter the Bush-Cheney barrage on the airwaves, and generally get out the Democratic message. Even so, a decision is unlikely before the end of May. As Mr Johnson knows better than anyone, this is one matter that cannot be rushed.

History teaches that running mates rarely make much difference in elections for the White House. Americans vote for President, not for Vice President. But the choice of a No 2 is a precious card. The mounting suspense before the announcement ensures free publicity, the oxygen of any political campaign. More important, the choice offers a further glimpse into a candidate's character.

By choosing Al Gore, Clinton showed a taste for the unorthodox, and a confidence in himself, picking a man of his own age and a Southerner like himself. By selecting the inexperienced and little-known Dan Quayle, George Bush Sr signalled that real power would reside with himself. Quayle's presence on the ticket didn't matter in 1988, when the opponent was the ineffectual Michael Dukakis. In 1992, against the formidable Clinton/Gore ticket, it may well have done.

In the next few weeks, John Kerry will bear in mind three broad considerations. The first is personal chemistry; he and his running mate must get on. Second, if the worst happened (as it did in 1945 and 1963 - and almost did in 1981 when Ronald Reagan was nearly killed by a would-be assassin's bullet), would that person be qualified to take over as President at short notice? Third, he must not alienate any group or region of voters, and ideally should be able either to deliver a particular swing state, or give his party an edge with a particular group of voters. Such is the subtle art of ticket balancing - and, as always, the 2004 crop of potential vice-presidential nominees stacks up differently.

John Edwards, who is perhaps the bookies' favourite, offers great charm and campaigning skills, as well as an outside shot for the Democrats at his own state of North Carolina. But, like Kerry, he is also a Senator. Might a perceived excess of Capitol Hill insiderdom put off many undecided voters? And then there's Dick Gephardt, the former Democratic leader in the House. He is even more of a Washington insider than Edwards, and, moreover, lacks the latter's appeal on the stump. But he brings with him the safest pair of hands imaginable - and possibly the 11 electoral college votes of his native Missouri, swing state par excellence, which has been carried by every successful White House candidate in a century, with the exception of Dwight Eisenhower in 1956.

So, perhaps Kerry will decide that a state governor unpolluted by Washington's ways would be a better bet. In which case, Bill Richardson of New Mexico, Tom Vilsack of Iowa, or Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas might fit the bill. Richardson is well known, as a former Cabinet secretary, a US ambassador to the UN, and for his work as a diplomatic troubleshooter for Bill Clinton. He is, moreover, a Hispanic who would appeal to the second-largest cultural-ethnic group in the country.

If the mantle falls on Tom Vilsack, the Democrats could probably sleep easily about Iowa, whose seven electoral-college votes Al Gore secured by a margin of just 0.3 per cent of the popular vote four years ago. Ms Sebelius is a moderate who would offset Mr Kerry's perceived liberalism, and presumably strengthen the party's already powerful appeal to women. But does she have the experience to move into the Oval Office on an instant?

Then there are the long shots. In a bid to capture centrists, Mr Kerry might even try to persuade a Republican to join the ticket. One name doing the rounds is William Cohen, who, as Defense Secretary during Bill Clinton's second term, has some form in "crossing the aisle". Even better, from Mr Kerry's point of view, would be the recruitment of his long-standing Senate friend, John McCain of Arizona - who some say is the most popular politician in the US. A Kerry-McCain ticket, say supporters, would be unstoppable. Alas for the Democrats, McCain has made all but categorically clear, it won't happen.

Then there are the rank outsiders. Into this category fall two non-politicians: Tom Brokaw, the finely chiselled anchorman of NBC's Nightly News (whose name was touted by The Wall Street Journal), and the supremely polished Robert Rubin, a successful Treasury Secretary under Clinton. For whoever is chosen, however, one rule is absolute. The Vice President must not become brighter than the sun. All of them serve at their master's pleasure, to be discarded if circumstances dictate. That applies even to the post-9/11 Dick Cheney of the "secure and undisclosed location".

The 2004 election is set to be as close as its predecessor. In that case, all Cheney's loyalty to the Bush family may count for nothing if his master's popularity slides. A Bush slump in the polls and, it is whispered, the taciturn, charisma-light Cheney, whose own approval rating is a meagre 35 per cent or so, could be dropped in favour of a Republican folk-hero such as Rudolph Giuliani, the former Mayor of New York. Such are the realities of being Vice President. In his moment of glory in Boston this summer, John Kerry's anointed running mate should bear them in mind.

A HEARTBEAT AWAY FROM THE PRESIDENCY

* There have been 48 Vice Presidents of the United States but only 26 have served out the terms for which they were appointed

* Of these, 14 have gone on to become President

* Nine have replaced the President during his term

* The Vice President's salary in 1789 was $5,000, and in 2001 it was $171,500

* The youngest Vice President to assume office was John Breckinridge, who was 36 at the time, while the oldest was Alben Barkley who was 71

* Daniel Tompkins was the youngest Vice President when he died at the age of 50, while John Nance Garner was the oldest at 98

* Three Vice Presidents share a birthday - 27 August. They are Hannibal Hamlin (1809), Charles Dawes (1865), and Lyndon B Johnson (1908)

* Geraldine Ferraro was the first female vice-presidential nominee on a major ticket when Walter Mondale selected her to join his campaign in 1984

* The only Vice President in the 20th century to advance to the presidency by election directly after completion of his vice-presidential term was George Bush Sr in 1988