Bookies offer ‘even odds’ for Donald Trump being impeached while US President

Fancy a gamble?

Odds are 50-50 that the President-elect will be formally accused of wrongdoing before his first term is out (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

After Donald Trump threw his hat in the ring for the White House, now speculators and pundits alike can participate in the national guessing game that is: How long will the President-elect last?

Mr Trump has frequently talked about the "next eight years", suggesting he will be re-elected in 2020, but the odds are literally stacked against him.

Ladbrokes said that odds he will be impeached or resign before his first term ends are 50-50.

Paddy Power is offering a more conservative 20 per cent chance that Mr Trump will be impeached in the first six months of his Presidency.

Although betting is not a reliable or predictable science, given that bookies were in favour of Hillary Clinton winning the election, there is pretty solid evidence to back up a gamble that Mr Trump will not last the full four years.

Mr Trump recently prompted outrage when he gave his first press conference after six months alongside a stack of paper folders, the proof of his plans as to how he would separate official and commercial duties. The papers appeared to be blank.

The President-elect, who has still not released his tax returns, claimed he would hand his businesses over to his older two sons, instead of liquidating all holdings and placing them in a blind trust.

Richard Painter, a University of Minnesota law professor who was chief ethics counsel to George W Bush, told Think Progress that Mr Trump could breach the Emoluments Clause in the US Constitution, which prohibits presidents from buying influence with federal officials or receiving special treatment.

Mr Trump recently hosted a group of foreign diplomats at his new hotel in Washington DC. If the diplomats pay more than “fair market value” for a room, for example, it could breach the clause. Suites cost thousands of dollars per night. Foreign leaders could also be arguably staying in his hotel to benefit from the added value of doing business with the President.

Laurence Tribe, professor of law at Harvard University, as well as Norm Eisen, former ethics counsel to President Barack Obama, both agreed that Mr Trump’s business ties cloud the water over his Presidency.

For gamblers who want to take a longer-term view, Bet At Home is offering odds on who will win the 2020 election. There is a 40 per cent chance Mr Trump will win a second term, according to this betting house.

The highest pay-out with the lowest odds is 500/1 from Paddy Power - if the Republican paints his entire White House gold.