Threat of a green-tinged Stormont as Blair raises the heat on Paisley

The British and Irish Prime Ministers have launched a concerted eight-month effort to shoehorn Unionists and republicans into a new power-sharing coalition government.

Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern warned all sides that their initiative was in effect the "last chance saloon" for the reinstatement of devolution at Stormont. They attempted in particular to apply pressure to the Rev Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionist party to agree to take office alongside Sinn Fein by the new deadline of 24 November. It was made clear that if agreement is not reached, Dublin will be given a greater role in the running of Northern Ireland, a prospect which would certainly not appeal to Mr Paisley.

The salaries and expenses of Assembly members - who are still being paid even though the institution has been suspended since 2002 - would also cease.

Mr Paisley has repeatedly warned that he will not do a deal with republicans until all vestiges of law-breaking and criminality have disappeared.

A crucial question is, therefore, whether the IRA will in time be exonerated of this week's assassination of the British agent Denis Donaldson. The hope of London and Dublin, and most other participants in the peace process, is that it will be established that the killing was not authorised by the IRA's leadership.

The further hope is that by November official monitoring reports will say conclusively that the IRA has ceased all activity, including criminality.

The DUP and Sinn Fein, the two principal components of any new local administration, were both lukewarm about yesterday's announcement, but neither condemned it or threatened to boycott it.

Although the Donaldson murder inevitably cast a shadow over the political announcement, the general sense is that a route map has been laid towards renewed devolution.

Success will depend on a clean bill of health for the IRA, followed by confirmation from the Paisley camp that republicans will be considered by them fit for membership of a new coalition.

While no one believes this will be easy, few believe that it will be absolutely impossible, though some politicians think the process will stretch into next year.

The Assembly is to be convened, without power, for a six-week period. If, as is anticipated, no breakthrough occurs at that point, a summer recess is to be followed by a 12-week period of negotiations aimed at forming a cross-party executive.

Tony Blair, who visited Northern Ireland yesterday to set out the scheme, declared: "Be in no doubt - at the conclusion of this period we either resolve to go forward on the basis of mature democracy, or we call time on this and seek another way to go."

In the absence of agreement there would be "a step-change in advancing North-South co-operation and action," a stipulation intended to convey to Mr Paisley that the present direct rule from London would assume a new, green tinge.

In his initial response Mr Paisley said: "The DUP will not be forced, rushed or bullied into accepting any level of IRA criminality.

"Currently there is no evidence that Sinn Fein/IRA will be any further advanced in giving up criminality in November."

Mr Ahern said: "I look at this as a start of a process. I do not want on 24 November to be thinking about another plan.

"I would love it to happen very quickly before that date but, whenever, I hope we will see the restoration of accountable institutions in Northern Ireland with politicians back in the lead position."