UK general election 2015: What do the latest polls show?
Populous, Lord Ashcroft and YouGov all released polling data yesterday - and all had very different predictions of voting intentions
![Nick Clegg, Liberal Democrats, Ed Miliband, Labour, and David Cameron, Conservatives](https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2015/01/13/11/leaders-various-v2.jpg)
Support truly
independent journalism
Our mission is to deliver unbiased, fact-based reporting that holds power to account and exposes the truth.
Whether $5 or $50, every contribution counts.
Support us to deliver journalism without an agenda.
![Louise Thomas](https://static.independent.co.uk/static-assets/support-us/louise-thomas.png)
Louise Thomas
Editor
The first polls of 2015 have presented very different predictions of voter indications in the coming UK general election.
Lord Ashcroft’s poll, published yesterday, gave the Conservatives a six-point lead on Labour, by 34 per cent to 28 per cent. To put this in perspective this is the largest Tory lead in several years, with the previous two MORI polls placing them only three points ahead.
In comparison, figures also released yesterday by Populus claim to show Labour is leading by five points at 37 per cent to the Conservatives 32 per cent.
Against these two polls, YouGov released figures over the week that placed the two main parties neck-and-neck at 32 per cent apiece.
What do these seemingly hugely different results mean?
Although both polls would appear to indicate changing intentions towards political parties in the run-up to the election, until these results are replicated in a bigger sample it is dangerous to draw too many conclusions from what is essentially a small survey of 1,000 or so people.
The results are more indicative of differing methods used by each pollster. The way in which Populus weights its polls tends to give a bigger share of the vote to lesser parties.
On the other hand, the Ashcroft Poll recently changed its methodology: instead of listing Ukip among “other” political parties as an option, the right-wing party is now listed with ‘traditional’ main parties.
Finally, it is important to remember that all polls carry a three per cent margin for error.
The next UK general election will be held on 7 May.
Subscribe to Independent Premium to bookmark this article
Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? Start your Independent Premium subscription today.
Join our commenting forum
Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies
Comments