Are the Tories using Dominic Cummings’ ‘number on the side of a bus’ tactic?

Reports of Labour plans costing £1.2 trillion appear similar to the Vote Leave chief’s £350m for the NHS pledge – but Conservatives have missed one key element, writes John Rentoul

Vote Leave’s campaign bus falsely claimed leaving the EU would free £350m a week for the NHS (Getty)

We should be familiar with it by now. Dominic Cummings, the prime minister’s chief of staff, stumbled on the tactic in the 2011 referendum on the alternative vote. He worked on the “No to AV” campaign, and one of its most effective posters was a photo of a newborn baby, with the slogan: “She needs a maternity unit NOT an alternative voting system – say NO to spending £250m on AV.”

To AV supporters it was infuriating. The reform would allow people to mark their ballot paper with numbers, ranking candidates in order of preference, instead of a cross by a single name. That is all it does. The cost of the change is only the extra time taken to count ballots when a candidate fails to win half the first-preference votes. Yet here was the “No to AV” campaign making up a number and making an emotive claim about the health service.

The 2016 EU referendum featured an untrue number on the side of a bus, and said, “Let’s fund our NHS instead.” It had the same effect: Cummings’ opponents went into paroxysms of indignation, drawing attention to his side’s emotionally powerful message.