How many seats will Conservatives win in 2015? Examining the safe Tory bets and key marginals

Our guide to where David Cameron's party will, could, and won't win seats this election

On the campaign trail: Prime Minister David Cameron delivers a speech in Weaver Vale, Cheshire (TOBY MELVILLE/AFP/Getty Images)

With just over two weeks to go until the general election, every party is working tirelessly to secure as many seats as possible.

Here, The Independent takes a look at where the Conservatives are certain to win seats, where they will be fighting to overturn slim majorities and where they haven't got a chance - as well as what effect this could all have on the final result.

Where are the safe seats?

There are 200 “safe” seats – constituencies with majorities too large to realistically overturn – and of these, the Conservatives hold 106.

The safest Tory seat is Richmond, in Yorkshire, with a majority of over 23,000 votes. The seat has been William Hague’s for the past 26 years, and looks set to remain in Conservative hands after the election – Rishi Sunak is the party’s new candidate.

Generally, the Tory strongholds are concentrated in the south-east of England, as well as in affluent parts of London and the city’s surrounding commuter belt.

Stalwart: William Hague has represented the safe Tory seat of Richmond for more than a quarter of a decade (PA)

Where are the key battlegrounds?

Of the 200 seats with the smallest majorities, the Tories are currently clutching onto 83. In the past, the marginal battlegrounds have been relatively simple to identify, but with the polls so close as we approach May 7, it is difficult to pinpoint the slim-majority seats being targeted - and the rise of the smaller parties, such as Ukip and the Greens, has only complicated things further.

One probable Tory tactic, however, will be to benefit as much as possible from the Liberal Democrats' demise. Marginal seats currently held by Nick Clegg’s party – such as Solihull and Brecon & Radnorshire – could prove pivotal to the national balance.

There are also the Labour marginals which could become Tory territory, including Hampstead & Kilburn and Plymouth Moor View.

And of course, there are the marginals which the Tories hold, but could lose. The Ukip surge threatens a number of them – including Thanet South, possibly the most talked about seat the general election build-up, thanks to a certain Mr Farage.

Read more about the seats which could decide the election here.

Where have they not got a chance?

There are some parts of the UK where the Tories won’t get a look-in. Large swathes of Scotland are consumed by a battle between the SNP and Labour, with the former looking increasingly likely to overturn generations of support for the latter.

Elsewhere, a significant amount of northern England, especially that with an industrial past, is staunchly Labour, as is most of South Wales.

Takeover: Nicola Sturgeon's SNP look set to take Scotland by storm (PA)

How many seats are they projected to win? And how many do they need?

The Tories – or any party for that matter – need to win 326 seats to claim a majority. Anything less will lead to a hung parliament and post-election negotiations between the parties, leading to either a second coalition or a single party attempting to go it alone with a minority government.

At the moment, it seems impossible to tell how many seats each will get. Varying polls predictably have Labour and Tories leading the pack, but which party has their noses ahead is contentious – some have Labour as far six points ahead, while others project a similar lead for the Conservatives.

In terms of seats, the most probable outcome for the Tories seems to be anywhere from the early-260s to the mid-280s.