General Election 2015: Tory attempt to exploit Labour-SNP link is shameless, but it will work

Inside the election

The PM will be accused of sharply reducing Britain’s global influence because the country has "stepped away from the world" (Getty Images)

“Behind closed doors politics, indecision, weak government, a paralysed economy”, the Conservatives warned. You might think they were talking about the dangers of a Labour government propped up by the Scottish National Party, since they have talked about little else for the past week.

In fact, the apocalyptic Tory warning was issued in 2010 when the party produced a spoof election broadcast about the perils of a hung parliament on behalf of the Hung Parliament Party. The Tories also predicted turmoil on the financial markets and even that the International Monetary Fund might be called in.

They do not like to be reminded about it now. Why? Because people did vote for a hung parliament and for the last five years we have had “behind closed doors politics” – conducted by the Conservative-Liberal Democrat Coalition. It produced remarkably strong government and, eventually, a revitalised economy. Although David Cameron must campaign for an overall majority in this election, he knows he is very unlikely to win one. So he would do it all again with the Lib Dems in 13 days in order to keep Labour out.

The Tories are playing the SNP card because everything else they have thrown at Labour has failed. Ed Miliband does not look “weak and weird,” as the Tories and their newspaper allies hoped. They underestimated the Labour leader, who has grown in confidence during the campaign, surprising many in his own party as well as its opponents. The Tories tried to win on economic competence, but found that many voters do not feel the recovery – or, if they do, are in no mood to say “thank you”. Then Mr Cameron and George Osborne splashed the cash, with what Labour claims is £25bn of uncosted spending pledges, including £8bn for the NHS. Again, voters seem unimpressed. They know the Tories are committed to further deep spending cuts, which they refuse to spell out in detail. They do not trust the Tories’ instincts on public services. Until recently, Lynton Crosby, the party’s Aussie campaign director, advised it there would be no votes in talking about health because it was a Labour issue. After keeping off the pitch, the Tories made a panicky late substitution.

The Tories claim Sturgeon and Salmond would call the shots in a Labour government and veer Miliband to the left (PA)

Again, the opinion polls remained neck and neck. So the Tories resorted to scaremongering that Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond would call the shots in a minority Labour government and push Mr Miliband to the left. It is exaggerated, since the SNP’s muscles would not be as powerful as the Tories claim. Labour could call the SNP’s bluff because the Nationalists could not risk bringing down a Labour administration and letting the Tories back in. With the rampant SNP likely to make huge gains from Labour in Scotland next month, one gloomy Labour figure told me: “We will not recover in Scotland until the Nats put the Tories in.” Which, of course, the SNP knows full well, so it wouldn’t happen -- certainly not before the Scottish Parliament elections in a year’s time. So that means the SNP could not “call the shots” if Prime Minister Miliband relied on its votes in the Commons.

The Labour-SNP threat is included in every Tory speech, statement and press release, even when the SNP factor is irrelevant (Getty)

However, that won’t stop the Tories raising the spectre of the SNP tail wagging the Labour dog. Mr Crosby, a stickler for message discipline, no longer demands the “long term economic plan” in every Tory sentence. Instead, the Labour-SNP threat is included in every Tory speech, statement and press release, even when the SNP factor is irrelevant.

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It is shameless, dishonest, nasty, crude and by talking up the SNP, it endangers the Union the Tories claim to support…..but I suspect it will work. Although a YouGov poll found that voters want to hear less about Scotland, the Tories have stumbled over a message that could well bring back some voters who have drifted off to Ukip. It is not about Scotland, but winning votes in England. It is about doing whatever it takes to hold on to power in the short term, even if that means pitting England versus Scotland and making the break-up of the UK more likely in the medium term.

Miliband rarely makes speeches on foreign policy (Getty Images)

In public, Labour and the Liberal Democrats insist the public will see through the desperate Tory tactics. They even hope it will reinforce the Tories’ image as the “nasty party.”

In private, Labour and the Lib Dems are worried. If the Tories woo back voters in the North and Midlands worried about a Labour-SNP link-up, it could tip a small but crucial number of marginal seats their way. The Lib Dems’ hopes of holding on in their South West stronghold could be shattered; the region could turn from blue and yellow on the electoral map to blue.

The Tories insist the threat is real, since Mr Miliband does not rule out a post-election deal with the SNP on a vote-by-vote basis. If he rejected any co-operation in advance, it might make Labour’s fading chances of holding on to its Scottish seats even less likely. And turning down the offer of SNP support in a hung parliament could deprive Mr Miliband of his one shot at becoming prime minister.

The Tories and the Tory papers will stick to the Labour-SNP message until May 7, eclipsing issues like health that remind voters that Labour’s heart is in the right place, whatever their doubts about its economic credentials.

Two weeks ago, I wrote here that the Tories needed to change the music. However crudely, they have done so. Now it is Labour which needs to make sure the voters hear a different tune.