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EU referendum polls: Final ComRes poll shows significant lead for Remain

The survey is one of the last before polling stations open

Jon Stone
Thursday 23 June 2016 09:22 BST
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A majority of the public fear a no-deal end to Brexit transition, new polling suggests
A majority of the public fear a no-deal end to Brexit transition, new polling suggests (AFP/Getty)

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One of the final polls before the EU referendum has shown Remain with a significant lead.

ComRes found Remain eight points ahead of Leave in the poll published late on Wednesday evening.

Follow the latest live updates on the EU referendum here

On Thursday voters across Britain will go to the polls to decide whether their country should remain in the EU.

The poll, commissioned jointly by broadcaster ITV and the Daily Mail newspaper, shows Remain up three points since the same firm's last survey, with Leave down three points.

Pollster YouGov also released its election-eve survey at 10pm this evening, with a smaller swing to Remain.

That pollster found Remain on 51 per cent, up two, and Leave on 49 per cent, down two.

Seven areas that could swing EU referendum

The two polls contrast with the findings of TNS and Opinium surveys released earlier on Wednesday evening, both of which showed very narrow Leave leads.

All four of the pollsters other than ComRes are within the margin of error, which is usually +/- 3 points on most political surveys.

Ipsos MORI are expected to release a further survey in the morning on polling day. That poll will have been conducted entirely before polls open to avoid breaking election laws.

YouGov are expected to conduct a so-called "re-contact survey" once polls have closed.

Though not a fully fledged exit poll, this should give some idea of turnout in the referendum and provide valuable data for analysts.

The broad spread of numbers means at least one – or possibly several – pollsters will have got the result significantly wrong once they become known in the early hours of Friday.

At the last general election in May 2015 most of the polling industry failed to forsee the Conservatives gaining a majority of the vote.

The widespread failure prompted an industry-wide inquiry into how to get things right in future.

Most have since made changes to their methodologies.

The European Union referendum will take place on Thursday 23 June. The deadline to register to vote has already passed.

What to believe about the EU referendum

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