By-elections latest: Boris Johnson blamed for Sunak’s ‘armageddon’ defeat in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire
Labour could be on course for an even bigger landslide than the one seen under Tony Blair under 1997, polling guru says
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Sir Keir Starmer has cast himself the heir to Blair after a historic Tory by-election drubbing in which he jubilantly declared Labour was “redrawing the political map”.
The Labour leader said that Tory voters were turning to them because they were “fed up with the decline and despairing of the party they used to vote for”.
The Tories are now staring down the barrel of an unprecedented wipeout after suffering defeats in two fiercely contested by-elections, with huge majorities evaporating overnight following a disastrous few years in which the party has seemingly stumbled from one crisis to another.
Starmers remarks came as polling guru John Curtice said Boris Johnson and Liz Truss were largely to blame for the crushing defeat.
Overturning the biggest majority in British by-election history, Labour took Mid Bedfordshire from the Tories for the first time.
While in Tamworth, the party saw the second biggest swing from the Tories to Labour in a by-election in post-war history.
Meanwhile, former chancellor George Osborne warned the record defeats spell “armageddon” for the Conservatives at the general election.
Sunak should be ‘braver’ on migration and culture wars, says New Conservatives member
Danny Kruger, a member of the New Conservatives group, said Prime Minister Rishi Sunak should be “braver” on issues such as migration and the so-called culture wars if he is to turn the Tories’ fortunes around following a double by-election loss.
The MP for Devizes told BBC Radio 4’s World At One programme that he welcomed recent shifts on net zero, before adding: “I think we need to continue in that direction and be more coherent, more robust and braver.
“I think we need to go a bit further and faster. So on migration, I’m encouraged by the position on illegal migration. I think we now need to take further steps to reduce overall numbers of legal migration.
“I’m concerned about some issues around the so-called culture wars, which I think do matter to people. In Parliament and the media they tend to be disregarded but actually these things matter.
John Rentoul: Labour’s by-election wins are ‘second coming of Blairism’
Labour’s double by-election victory is the “second coming of Blairism,” The Independent’s chief political commentator John Rentoul has said.
Huge Tory majorities were overturned in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire, the latter of which was the biggest in British by-election history.
“These are the sort of results Tony Blair got as leader of the opposition,” Mr Rentoul told TalkTV on Friday, 20 October.
“It suggests that Labour is heading for that kind of swing in a general election... We’re not talking about an absolutely huge Labour majority... but it’s certainly looking pretty good for them.”
Mandelson warns Starmer against ‘poisonous’ over confidence
Labour grandee Peter Mandelson has warned Keir Starmer against the “poisonous and corrosive” belief in the party that the general election is already won.
Lord Mandelson told The Times podcast that Sir Keir Starmer needs to make voters “feel a bit more optimistic” but tell his own MPs there is more to do.
“One really big issue for the Labour party … many of them, I’m afraid, really do feel that the election has been won and that is so poisonous, it is so corrosive for a party.”
He warns that this overconfidence could lead Labour “into traps and mistakes”.
‘Architects of disaster’: Boris, Truss and Tory right accused of leading party into electoral wilderness
The Conservative party was sent into a fresh round of anguish and infighting after the historic double by-election defeat to Labour in the safe seats of Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire.
Tory chairman Greg Hands blamed the “legacy issues” left by Mr Sunak’s predecessors – and Johnson allies Nadine Dorries and Chris Pincher for creating “fury” among voters by forcing the by-elections in the first place.
Read more from Adam Forrest below:
‘Architects of disaster’: Boris and Truss accused of destroying Tories
Tory chair Greg Hands blames ‘legacy’ issues, as moderates warn PM against further lurch to the right
How will the by-elections impact next year’s general election
The Tories expected a difficult night, in part because governing parties often suffer a by-election backlash but also because of the controversies that led to the two vacancies.
But with a general election expected next year, the Conservative party cannot shrug off today’s landmark by-election results in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire.
Swings of over 20 percentage points have taken place at eight by-elections in the past three years – a pattern that is unprecedented in recent political history. Seven of those contests have seen the Tories lose seats, four to the Liberal Democrats and three to Labour
Mr Sunak has to go to the country by January 2025 at the latest, but spring or autumn 2024 are more likely options.
Considering the Tories won in 2019 with a majority of 80, the prospect of a Conservative defeat would represent a seismic shift in British politics in the space of five years.
The phrase “it’s the economy, stupid” has become a political cliche, but Mr Sunak has to a large degree pinned his hopes on an improving economic picture. He will hope that growth picks up, inflation falls and people feel a sense of optimism about the direction of the country.
With discretion over the timing of the general election, he can choose the point he feels it is most likely to result in a Tory win.
But the state of the public finances could restrict Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s ability to deliver a tax-cutting, voter-pleasing budget in the run-up to the election. And problems with NHS waiting lists and small boat crossings of the English Channel are unlikely to disappear despite promises to deal with them featuring prominently in Mr Sunak’s priorities for government.
Sunak must be more ‘robust and brave’ on culture wars, says Tory MP
Tory right-winger Danny Kruger, a key figure in the New Conservatives group of 2017 and 2019 MPs, said Mr Sunak should be “braver” on issues like immigration, net zero and other so-called culture war issues.
“I think we need to continue in that direction and be more coherent, more robust and braver,” he told the BBC. “I think we need to go a bit further and faster. In Parliament and the media they [culture war issues] tend to be disregarded but actually, these things matter.”
“So the guidance on sex education in schools, proposals around transgender rights are significant and matter and they have real cut-through. We need to be bolder on taxation than we have been.”
Sunak ‘must do better’, says Tory MP
Boris Johnson backer Michael Fabricant said there “little evidence of Conservative voters switching to Labour unlike under Blair” – but he added that the Rishi Sunak’s government “must do better!”
Stopping the squabbling, says senior Tory
“Starmer is a dud – he doesn’t inspire,” one former Tory minister told The Independent, who called on squabbling in the backbench ranks to end.
“The Conservative Party needs to restore its self-discipline and support the PM.”
It comes as backbench MPs argued in a Tory WhatsApp group. According to Sky News, one MP wrote: “Our voters stayed at home they DIDN’T switch. Come the general the public who sat in their hands will come out to back us.”But another Tory MP told the broadcaster some colleagues were “deluded”.
Sunak sticking to ‘strategy of denial’, says David Frost
Former Tory Brexit minister David Frost said has accused Rishi Sunak of sticking to a “strategy of denial” which is not working.
The right-wing Tory peer said the results were “extremely bad for my party... and I don’t think it helps to suggest otherwise”.
Lord Frost – who is pushing for tax cuts and a dialling down of net zero policies – added: “The current national polls are dreadful for us but these results are even *worse*. If your voters don’t want to come out and vote for you then you don’t win elections. It’s as simple as that.”
‘No real love for Labour’, says Gillian Keegan
Tory education secretary Gillian Keegan claimed that there was “no real love for Labour” on the doorsteps in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth.
“There were very, very few people who were switching over,” Ms Keegan told ITV News.
“We still have to demonstrate to them that it’s worth of getting out of their house and voting Conservative like they usually do. She added: “We still have to demonstrate to them that it’s worth of getting out of their house and voting Conservative like they usually do.”
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