Brexit: Majority of public now back Final Say referendum amid chaos in Westminster, poll shows

Exclusive: 52 per cent of people say the public should have a second referendum

Most of the British public now back having a Final Say referendum on Brexit whatever the outcome eventually is, an exclusive poll for The Independent has found.

Amid the chaos in parliament, backing for a new public vote, which has simmered just below 50 per cent for months, finally broke through into a majority in April, according to the BMG Research survey.

Major players in both main parties have signalled that a referendum could be the way forward, including chancellor Philip Hammond and shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry.

But despite the clear desire for a vote to break the Brexit impasse and reset British politics, the survey once again showed a country deeply divided.

The research revealed Britain has no clear favourite for what the referendum should ask – with different groups wanting no deal, Remain and Ms May’s proposal as options.

And when it came to a Brexit agreement, most people believed it would be unacceptable if it did not allow the UK to undertake free trade deals and be free of the European Court of Justice rulings – in contrast to the options being pursued by MPs in Westminster.

The survey of a weighted sample of more than 1,500 people in early April asked: “Would you support the British public having the final vote on Brexit, whatever the outcome of negotiations – whether a deal is reached or not?”

Some 52 per cent of people supported a new vote, 29 per cent “strongly” and 23 per cent “somewhat”, while just 24 per cent opposed, to some degree, having another referendum. The remaining 24 per cent replied: “Don’t know.”

The latest poll follows two major marches on 23 March and 20 October through central London, sponsored by The Independent’s Final Say campaign, which saw hundreds of thousands of demonstrators flock to the capital.

Mr Hammond won plaudits but also outraged fellow Tory ministers last week after suggesting a new vote would be a “perfectly credible proposition”.

Jeremy Corbyn is resisting pressure to fully back a referendum whatever the outcome of Brexit, with his team saying a Labour-backed deal would not need one.

But the underlying challenge to a new vote was also laid bare by the poll when the same group were asked what the choice on the referendum ballot paper should be: May’s deal or no deal (27 per cent support); Remain or May’s deal (32 per cent); and no deal or Remain (26 per cent). A further 16 per cent did not know.

Parliament has twice voted on different alternatives to Ms May’s Brexit deal, and has twice failed to back anything with a majority of MPs – although options that put the UK into a customs union and/or the single market scored highly.

But according to the new poll, these options – even if most MPs do end up backing them – could face majority opposition from the country.

Respondents were also shown three potential outcomes and were asked if they would be “acceptable or unacceptable” if delivered by the eventual Brexit deal.

A majority of 55 per cent believed a deal would be unacceptable if it left the UK subject to the rulings of the European Court of Justice – something which would occur if Britain remained in the single market – while only 30 per cent said it would be acceptable and 15 per cent did not know

A further 50 per cent said it would be unacceptable if any deal left the UK unable to sign its own trade deals – a consequence of remaining in a customs union – including 58 per cent of Tory voters and 47 per cent of both Labour and Lib Dem voters. Only 36 per cent thought it would be acceptable for the UK to agree to a deal which left it unable to have an independent trade policy, while 14 per cent did not know.

Overall, people who responded to the poll were most willing to tolerate freedom of movement, which is ironic given immigration was a key factor in the 2016 referendum.

Exactly half said that a deal which allowed the continuation of free movement would be acceptable, while 35 per cent said it would be unacceptable and 15 per cent did not know.

This week Ms May will renew her push to try to find a majority for some option in the House of Commons before heading to Brussels at the end of the week to seek another delay to Brexit.

Voting intention data in the poll showed the Conservatives on 35 per cent, Labour on 34 per cent and the Lib Dems on 11 per cent.

Source Note: BMG Research interviewed a representative sample of 1,514 GB adults online between 2 and 5 April. Data are weighted. BMG are members of the British Polling Council and abide by their rules.