Covid: Lockdown exit ‘hangs in balance’ as experts warn PM of risks in unlocking on 21 June

Ex-Sage adviser claims up to 30,000 lives could have been saved if first lockdown began a week earlier

Plans to lift the final lockdown restrictions across England next month are “in the balance” because so much remains unknown about the spread of the Indian Covid variant, a top scientist has warned.

Professor Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, said there were still question marks over the 21 June roadmap date for the easing of remaining social distancing curbs.

He said government experts were concerned about the transmissibility of the Indian variant. “Step 4 [of the roadmap] is rather in the balance – the data collected in the next two to three weeks will be critical,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Thursday.

“The key issue as to whether we can go forward is: will the surge caused by the Indian variant – and we do think there will be a surge – be more than has been already planned in to the relaxation measures?”

He added: “So it was always expected that relaxation would lead to a surge in infections and to some extent a small third wave of transmission – that’s inevitable if you allow contact rates in population to go up, even despite immunity – [but] we can’t cope with that being too large.”

Government scientists have said it is too early to decide whether the 21 June easing could go ahead as planned. Prof John Edmunds, Sage adviser, said the Indian variant “is taking off in a number of places … it is concerning.”

Asked on ITV’s Peston whether he could currently advise Boris Johnson to unlock fully on 21 June, Prof Edmunds replied: “No. At the moment it looks a little bit risky.”

The latest government data shows the number of people in the UK testing positive for Covid-19 in the past week is up 18 per cent. It also shows another 789 Covid patients were admitted to hospital in the past week – an increase of 10 per cent.

Prof Ferguson, the former Sage adviser whose modelling was instrumental in eventually persuading the government to bring in the first lockdown, was asked about claims made by ex-10 official Dominic Cummings on Wednesday.

The epidemiologist – dubbed “Professor Lockdown” by the tabloids – said it was “unarguable” that between 20,000 to 30,000 lives would have been saved if the shutdown last March had begun a week earlier.

Largely substantiating Mr Cummings’ claims, Prof Ferguson said scientists had became increasingly worried in the week leading up to 13 March about the lack of a clear plan.

“The epidemic was doubling every three to four days in weeks 13 to 23 of March, and so had we moved the interventions back a week we would have curtailed that and saved many lives,” he told the Today programme.

He added: “I would say from the scientific side there was increasing concern that week leading up to the 13 of March about the lack of clear, let’s say, [a] resolved plan of what would happen in the next few days in terms of implementing social distancing.”

Asked how influential Sage was in changing the policy from herd immunity to lockdown, he said: “It’s multiple factors, partly the modelling, which had been around for a couple of weeks but became firmer, particularly as we saw data coming in from the UK.”

Prof Ferguson added: “As we saw the data build up, and it was matching the modelling, even worse than the modelling, let’s say it focused minds.”

Prof Edmunds revealed his own frustrations that it took so long to change course in early March. “Obviously it's much easier in hindsight to look back, but I think [Cummings] is right,” he told ITV. “I think the strategy was wrong. I was pleased when it changed.”