Murder and rape among 500 serious crimes a year committed by offenders on probation

Watchdog warns of ‘optimism bias’ as report reveals most offenders were not assessed as high risk

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Around 500 serious offences, including murder and rape, are being committed every year by offenders under probation supervision, a report has revealed.

HM Inspectorate of Probation found that in almost two thirds of the cases it looked at, criminals had been originally assessed as presenting a low or medium risk of serious harm.

It warned that although “serious further offence” reviews are carried out by the Probation Service in order to learn lessons and stop mistakes being repeated, a third of those reports required improvement or were inadequate.

Justin Russell, the chief inspector of probation, said: “Each year, around 500 serious sexual or violent offences are committed by people who are under probation supervision.

“Each incident will have a devastating impact on all those involved, which is why it is essential that the Probation Service learns from these awful incidents to improve the way it manages risk of harm and to support a reduction in reoffending.”

The watchdog said that “too many” serious further offence reviews were below par, failing to analyse why and how offenders were able to commit serious crimes after being released from prison.

In 2019-20, 74 people under probation supervision were convicted for murder, 54 for rape, 25 for manslaughter, 18 for attempted murder and others for kidnapping, arson and other serious violent and sexual crimes.

They made up around 0.5 per cent of all offenders being monitored in England and Wales, and the majority were being supervised after release from prison.

None of the offenders who went on to commit murder had been assessed as “very high” risk by the Probation Service previously, only a quarter were deemed high risk, 57 per cent medium and 11 per cent low.

The report warned of “optimism bias” among probation workers, saying some were underestimating the danger posed by offenders and relying too much on internal reports.

“This is exacerbated by practitioners focusing on providing support, to the detriment of managing risk and delivering offence-focused interventions,” it added.

Probation workers were also failing to check whether the person was being released into homes with children or partners who would be put at risk of domestic abuse.

When licence conditions are broken, the report said that officials were “not taking enforcement action” and missing opportunities to put dangerous offenders back in prison.

Probation inspectors found that “excessive workloads” often underpin bad practice, and that there were issues with recruiting and retaining staff.

They said that the changing of processes during the Covid pandemic, to switch to “remote supervision” using phone and video calls for some offenders, had made effective supervision more difficult.

Serious further offence reviews are triggered when a person is charged with a crime committed while they were under probation supervision or within 28 working days of it ending.

They are mandatory for murder, rape, sexual offences against children and other serious crimes.

A Ministry of Justice spokesperson said: “Serious further offences are rare but have a devastating impact on victims which is why we conduct thorough investigations into each one.

“We are investing an extra £155m a year into the Probation Service helping us to recruit thousands more staff to improve supervision, information sharing with police and safeguarding services, and risk assessment so that the public are better protected.”