Coronavirus: Neil Ferguson warns further restrictions may be needed to prevent NHS being overwhelmed by second wave

Epidemiologist says reducing contact between different households most important measure

The former government adviser Professor Neil Ferguson has said that further restrictions may be necessary to stop the NHS being "overwhelmed again”, as the UK struggles to contain the growing rate of coronavirus infection.

The epidemiologist and former Sage adviser told the BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Tuesday morning that the number of Covid-19 cases “are probably doubling every two weeks or so – and some areas faster than that, maybe every seven days”.

While acknowledging that hospitals are now treating cases better and are “less stressed”, the Imperial College London professor suggested that the NHS would not be able to cope if the current rate of transmission continues.

Referring to the doubling of admissions to hospital every fortnight, Prof Ferguson said: “We just cannot have that continue indefinitely, the NHS will be overwhelmed again.”

"If we allow the current trend to continue, all the modelling done by multiple groups for the government at the moment is indicating that there is a risk” of the NHS being overwhelmed, he added.

The epidemiologist pointed to new Covid-19 restrictions imposed in Paris and Spain, which he said were introduced because of the strain that rising coronavirus cases were having on hospitals there.

Speaking about how the UK might stem the spread of coronavirus, Prof Ferguson, whose modelling contributed to the decision to impose a nationwide lockdown in March, said the most important measures were reducing contact between members of different households.

He added that the closure of hospitality venues and an “extended half term” were also potential options to be considered.

"You will have heard measures being discussed across society as a whole such as extended half terms where we try to reduce transmission for a concerted period. I think those measures should be considered,” he said.

His comments came as the number of deaths from the virus in England and Wales has risen for a third successive week, with 215 deaths recorded in the week ending September 25, compared to 138 the week before and 99 a fortnight ago.