Norway model not right for Britain post-Brexit, says Norwegian minister

The Norwegian Industry Minister is not convinced about Britain joining the European Economic Area if it leaves the EU

Friday 01 July 2016 11:39 BST

Norway is in the European Economic Area but not the EU

Joining the European Economic Area would be an obvious way for the UK to retain access to the European Union’s single market should it go ahead and leave the bloc.

But in the EEA’s biggest member, Norway, questions are now being asked about the advantages of allowing the much bigger North Sea neighbor into an accord that in many ways has been tailored to the needs of the Scandinavian country and its other members — Iceland and Liechtenstein.

Concerns have been raised by the prime minister and the finance minister, and also by the leader of the Labour Party, the biggest group in opposition.

6 ways Britain leaving the EU will affect you

Signing up to the EEA would allow the UK to stay within the internal market and keep the trade ties that are the key to its prosperity.

While much of EU law would need to be adhered to, including the free movement of people, it would also provide some freedom from the Brussels bureaucracy that has been vilified by those who successfully lobbied for a so-called Brexit.

Monica Maeland, Norwegian industry minister, says it’s far from a clear-cut case that Norway should welcome the UK into the broader European Free Trade Association.

6 ways Britain leaving the EU will affect you

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1/66 ways Britain leaving the EU will affect you

6 ways Britain leaving the EU will affect you

More expensive foreign holidays

The first practical effect of a vote to Leave is that the pound will be worth less abroad, meaning foreign holidays will cost us more

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6 ways Britain leaving the EU will affect you

No immediate change in immigration status

The Prime Minister will have to address other immediate concerns. He is likely to reassure nationals of other EU countries living in the UK that their status is unchanged. That is what the Leave campaign has said, so, even after the Brexit negotiations are complete, those who are already in the UK would be allowed to stay

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6 ways Britain leaving the EU will affect you

Higher inflation

A lower pound means that imports would become more expensive. This is likely to mean the return of inflation – a phenomenon with which many of us are unfamiliar because prices have been stable for so long, rising at no more than about 2 per cent a year. The effect may probably not be particularly noticeable in the first few months. At first price rises would be confined to imported goods – food and clothes being the most obvious – but inflation has a tendency to spread and to gain its own momentum

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6 ways Britain leaving the EU will affect you

Interest rates might rise

The trouble with inflation is that the Bank of England has a legal obligation to keep it as close to 2 per cent a year as possible. If a fall in the pound threatens to push prices up faster than this, the Bank will raise interest rates. This acts against inflation in three ways. First, it makes the pound more attractive, because deposits in pounds will earn higher interest. Second, it reduces demand by putting up the cost of borrowing, and especially by taking larger mortgage payments out of the economy. Third, it makes it more expensive for businesses to borrow to expand output

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6 ways Britain leaving the EU will affect you

Did somebody say recession?

Mr Carney, the Treasury and a range of international economists have warned about this. Many Leave voters appear not to have believed them, or to think that they are exaggerating small, long-term effects. But there is no doubt that the Leave vote is a negative shock to the economy. This is because it changes expectations about the economy’s future performance. Even though Britain is not actually be leaving the EU for at least two years, companies and investors will start to move money out of Britain, or to scale back plans for expansion, because they are less confident about what would happen after 2018

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6 ways Britain leaving the EU will affect you

And we wouldn’t even get our money back

All this will be happening while the Prime Minister, whoever he or she is, is negotiating the terms of our future access to the EU single market. In the meantime, our trade with the EU would be unaffected, except that companies elsewhere in the EU may be less interested in buying from us or selling to us, expecting tariff barriers to go up in two years’ time. Whoever the Chancellor is, he or she may feel the need to bring in a new Budget

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“Britain must first clarify its position,” she said in an e-mailed answer to questions. “Then the EU must decide how they want to work with this and then we need to decide on our position. So it’s too early to decide on a possible expansion of EFTA.”

Paying Up

The UK position is unclear as the nation’s political scene has descended into chaos after Prime Minister David Cameron decided to step down.

But during campaigning in the UK’s in-or-out referendum, the Norwegian option was deemed unpalatable by many “Leave” supporters, since it doesn’t stop the free movement of people and would essentially tie the country to the EU without giving it any influence in the bloc.

Norway has adopted about 75 per cent of the EU’s laws, yet has little say in what those laws are. It also pays the bloc about €860 million (£717 million) a year for the privilege of accessing the internal market.

A UK entry would shift the balance of the agreement, which doesn’t cover the EU’s agriculture and fisheries policies, the customs union, trade policy, foreign and security policy, justice and home affairs or monetary union. The concern is that the UK could want changes in the accord and use its clout to drive them through.

Gas Exports

Jonas Gahr Stoere, Norwegian Labour Party leader, said that the UK will likely find its own way to connect to the inner market should it actually leave the EU.

He said it’s Norway’s responsibility to ensure the EEA’s stability and integrity.

“We’re unlikely to want to change the agreement which has evolved over more than 20 years,” he said in an e-mailed response to questions. Stoere was part of negotiating team that helped form the accord more than 20 years ago.

The country is now hoping that it can negotiate with the UK in parallel to any talks with the EU on its future trade ties. For both, the stakes are high since the UK buys about 62 per cent of its natural gas from Norway.

“Great Britain is an important trading partner for Norway and the EFTA,” said Maeland. “It’s important we keep good relations with the British. The EEA agreement has looked after this in a good manner and will continue to be in effect until the UK formally leaves the EU.”

© 2016 Bloomberg

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