Stupidly, the election doesn't seem to be about the economy this time

Which might be a good thing with all the false assumptions out there; let's debunk a few of them

It used to be said that general elections, in the end, come down to big questions of taxation, spending and fiscal competence. Which party will make your family worse off? Which party will improve public services? Who has a credible plan for public finances?

In these topsy-turvy political times it may be that none of those old assumptions hold any longer. We are in a world, after all, where Labour MPs could be wiped out in Scotland, despite the SNP’s loss in last year’s independence referendum, and where some 15 per cent of voters seem keen on choosing Nigel Farage’s party despite Ukip’s low chance of winning more than a couple of Westminster seats.

But in case those old election rules do still apply it’s worth spraying a little weed-killer on a few fiscal myths that have sprung up through the paving stones during this campaign.

One persistent myth is that whichever government is formed after the poll it will have to carry out a brutal fiscal consolidation. This feels true. After all, the deficit for the most recent financial year came in at £90bn. Yet, on current official growth and spending forecasts, the bulk of the structural fiscal repair job for day-to-day spending will be complete by the end of the 2015-16 financial year, and growth and rising tax revenues will take care of the rest of the problem by 2019-20 without requiring substantial pain.

Of course, those growth forecasts produced by the Office for Budget Responsibility might be wildly wrong. But we should acknowledge what they imply.

The figures for extensive public spending and welfare cuts that are often cited are not a consequence of a kind of fiscal gravity but rather they spring from the Conservatives’ chosen target of pushing the public finances into a current surplus by 2018-19. Do the consolidation more slowly and the fiscal pain required disappears – although this would result in more borrowing and higher debt interest payments.

Another myth is that Labour is planning big tax rises. The Conservative Party has, predictably, been desperate to entrench this perception to scare voters about another “tax bombshell”. And it’s arguable that the Tories – and other parties – should be planning to raise the tax take in the medium term given the growing demand for NHS services from an ageing population. Yet the fact is that this is not in Labour’s plans.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies’ (IFS) analysis shows an increase in receipts to just 36.9 per cent of GDP by 2019-20. That’s versus 36.3 per cent under the Conservative plans and still below the average pre-crisis level of 37.5 per cent. Those libertarian think-tanks complaining about Labour’s plans to tax Britain into sclerosis can perhaps afford to breathe easier.

There’s something of an irony here. Labour has fed the myth of the big fiscal repair job by trumpeting that it will cut spending every year. The purpose is to convince voters of its economic credibility. So, to bolster its fiscal reputation the party is making a song and dance about some pretty minor aggregate cuts. And, on tax, Labour has also helped create the impression of being tax-hungry by highlighting its fiscally trivial mansion tax and re-introduction of the 50p additional income tax rate.

Another myth is that all the parties are failing to be straight with the public about their fiscal plans and that none of their sums add up. To be fair, this contains an element of truth. All three of the main parties are pencilling in hefty sums raised by clamping down on unspecified forms of tax dodging. Yet some are behaving worse than others.

The Conservative pledges on ramping up NHS funding and cutting tax for high earners by 2020, combined with a tight deficit reduction timetable, leave Tories with a much bigger hole to explain. David Cameron’s party has also failed to spell out where it would cut the working age welfare budget, despite this (supposedly) providing a chunky £12bn of savings.

Yet another irony-saturated myth is that the SNP is seen as a kind of monument to fiscal irresponsibility. Yet as the IFS analysis last week showed, the SNP’s plans for spending are, in fact, slightly more austere even than Labour’s (whether due to intent or incompetence is an interesting question). So: a minor deficit problem, relatively low-tax Labour, unfunded Conservative promises and restrained Scottish socialists. Welcome to the genuine fiscal story of the 2015 general election.

Hamish McRae is away