Margareta Pagano: Lehman's legacy is not just about money, it's also about character
It's taken a TV account to show us that, as the world teetered on the edge, it came down to a bare-knuckle fight between egomaniacs
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Your support makes all the difference.The anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers this weekend has been marked in a number of different ways and how we were effected personally by the events of last September will have shaped our interest in the way that anniversary has been "celebrated".
I doubt, for example, if Gordon Brown turned over from the England match to watch The Last Days of Lehman Brothers, an excellent drama on BBC2 on Wednesday, or the first part of the BBC's The Love of Money documentary on Thursday. The fallout for Brown is far from over, and history may well judge that his responses to the crash finished his political career despite signs that the world economies are recovering.
Investors are clearly chirpier, helped by the return of the big deal – the mega-bid from Kraft for Cadbury and Orange's merger with T-Mobile, while a number of companies are back seeking listings on stock markets again. Even bankers are nearly back to normal too, salivating at the fees to be earned, while the forecasters do seem to agree that the worst is over.
But let's not forget the savers and pensioners whose returns have been slashed by low interest rates, nor the workers who have lost their jobs and the rest of us who face inevitable tax increases next year to pay for the enormous debts raised to pay for the fiscal stimulus. That's the real Lehman legacy and why the "business as usual" mood feels rather too good to be true.
It's also why the TV programmes were so good – salutary reminders of just how close to the edge we came. Both were compelling, but the drama impressed me the most because it conveyed the desperation and the peacock egos of the top US bankers and officials so closely involved in Lehman's bankruptcy. As someone who watches as little TV as possible, I can recommend catching up with this one on BBC iPlayer as it's a gripping portrayal of that fateful weekend. I haven't met all the characters but I can vouch for the veracity of the those who played Hank Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, and John Thain, the Merrill Lynch boss, both of whom I have spent time with. My longest conversation with Paulson took place when he ran Goldman Sachs. We met when he was visiting Goldman's grand Fleet Street office and talked about everything, from the markets to his love for the environment. In the flesh, he was every bit as terrifying a presence as the character in the drama, albeit better-looking and not so cold, but I could see exactly why he was able to take command in the way he did. John Thain was also shown as I recall him; sharp, buttoned-up and ruthlessly pragmatic, which led him to turn his back on saving Lehman and instead, broker the deal with Bank of America (BoA).
Now there's a reason for this quick trip down memory lane, jogged by what Dick Fuld, the ex-Lehman chief executive, told the intrepid reporter in his first interview last week. It's the way Fuld said, after acknowledging how the world blames him for the crash, that: "You know what, my mother loves me. And you know what, my family loves me and I've got a few close friends who understand what happened and that's all I need." It seems he has only just discovered something most of us take as important all the time, not just in a crisis.
It's taken a year for us to learn more about the real characters of the men who did so much damage to the world and there are lessons to be drawn. What the TV drama showed was that when the chips were down, when the future of the financial world teetered on the brink of collapse, it wasn't about whether Lehman's rival bankers could afford to put together a rescue deal but about their character. Without their corporate lawyers and PR men around, this drama showed us in the dimly lit rooms of the Federal Reserve that it came down to a bare-knuckle fight over whether it was in their interest to save Lehman. It wasn't – and they let it go because they knew the game was up.
It seems to me that Paulson – who had warned Fuld for months that he should find a white knight – and Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, have taken too much blame for letting Lehman go to the wall. I'm in a minority, but my own view is that it was Paulson's strength of character that allowed him to stand up to the prevailing wisdom and refuse a public bailout. If Lehman had been saved, there would have been another bank to save. In fact, it was the knowledge that Lehman was going down which made Thain find salvation with BoA, thus preventing another collapse. There is a further, much more important point: Paulson knew that Lehman was a boil, one of many poisoning the system, which had to be lanced to save the rest, and that the high level of risk built up was no longer sustainable.
Harsh medicine but perhaps, sadly, the right sort. Paulson's role and his decision will be debated by historians for decades. But this week we finally got a glimpse of the character – not the caricature – of the bankers who nearly broke the system. Some of them have finally turned away from the flattering, hi-tech, backlit mirrors of the executive bathrooms and taken a realistic look at themselves, as indicated by the latest comments from Goldman's Lloyd Blankfein and Lord Turner, both of whom have conceded that much of banking is socially useless. It's a start.
It will take a lot of balls to be the new boss of ITV
Barring a last-minute call from Rupert Murdoch, it now looks a slam-dunk that Tony Ball will soon be in the ITV hot seat. Apparently, the only thing missing on the contract is Balls's signature. He's still said to be holding out for more money and, who can blame him. After all, Ball, who was responsible for turning around Sky, was paid £10m by Mr Murdoch to do nothing for a few years so it's no surprise that he wants quite a lot to get back to work and wave his wand over the ailing broadcaster.
So what magic can we expect? It's no secret that one of his first touches will be to prune ITV's £700m plus debt. Investors such as Legal & General have not only supported Ball's appointment – some would say forced it – but have said they would be happy to put up between £300m and £500m of new capital. The shares have already nearly tripled this year to 55p on Friday, so Ball will want to raise money as quickly as possible. He's also likely to reverse some of the proposed sales, such as digital television business SDN, and get on with radical cost-cutting and management changes which may involve asking top programming executives to take a walk. But Ball is not one to shirk and he's already made it clear that he doesn't think much of the board although, for now, Michael Grade, is likely to stay. What Ball may do with the plans for a three-way merger with channels 4 and 5 is up in the air. His timing is good, too, as advertisers are coming out of hiding. The shares are still worth a punt.
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