Will the French elections reveal a shift to the right?

Fears about living standards – now the main theme of this campaign – could be seen as needing something more drastic than the attentions of a reasonably competent technocrat like Macron, writes Mary Dejevsky

A Le Pen scare could be just what is needed to get Macron’s vote out (Reuters)

An election that hardly seemed to be on the UK, or even the European, radar has suddenly sprung into life, with opinion polls suggesting that Marine Le Pen, the far-right candidate, could be a lot closer to evicting Emmanuel Macron from the Elysee than anyone had thought.

News that she had narrowed the gap to below four percentage points for the first round and less than two points in the likely run-off, sparked alarm in financial markets and is ensuring that many more eyes will be turned to Paris when the real first-round polls close on Sunday evening.

For months, Macron’s reelection had increasingly been seen as a foregone conclusion, which was surely one reason why the election was attracting far less attention abroad than it deserved. There was a general awareness that Macron had his election prospects in mind when he did something unpopular abroad – imposing new Covid travel restrictions just before Christmas, being so cross about the new US-UK-Australia defence grouping, not doing more to curb small boats crossing the Channel, and seeming determined to keep talking to Moscow, even after Russia invaded Ukraine.