For Biden and Netanyahu, Gaza is a balancing act for their political survival

The US president’s calculations must centre on the November election – Netanyahu’s, on maintaining US support and honouring his promises to Israelis, writes Mary Dejevsky. For both men’s political futures, the stakes couldn’t be higher

President Biden has said that if Israel’s operation in Rafah went ahead, he would withhold US weapons (Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

Another week, a few more degrees of separation between the United States and Israel – or so it would appear. With Prime Minister Netanyahu poised to launch a major offensive against the southern Gaza city of Rafah, President Biden said he had warned Israel that if the operation went ahead, he would withhold US weapons. “It’s just wrong,” he said in an interview with CNN. “We’re not going to supply the weapons and artillery shells.”

His statement came after the Pentagon confirmed that the US had already delayed one shipment of what were called “high payload munitions” because of concerns about their possible use in Rafah. As many as a million people have been sheltering in and around the city, after being forced out of northern and central Gaza, and while some limited evacuations have been organised, there is nowhere safe for the majority to go.

News of the delayed shipment and Biden’s very personal threat to withhold future deliveries indicated that the US president could for the first time be using Israel’s reliance on US weapons as a way of constraining Israel’s operations in Gaza, after months in which critics of Israel’s conduct of the war have been urging him to do just that. This makes him one of very few US presidents to reach for the arms supply lever in relations with Israel.