It is too early for optimism about Syria

Editorial: The fall of a tyrant is welcome – unless he is replaced by something worse

The fall of Bashir al-Assad is a contradictory moment, for Syria and the world. We cannot regret the deposing of a tyrant, who used murder, torture and even chemical weapons on his own people to maintain his grip on power. But we can recognise that he could always be replaced by something worse.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the force of “rebels” that has taken Damascus, is an Islamist group that was originally an al-Qaeda affiliate but which changed its name and tries to present itself as a moderate and inclusive force for the Syrian people. Not everyone buys the makeover: HTS remains a banned terrorist organisation in the eyes of the United Nations, the United States and Turkey.

Angela Rayner, the deputy prime minister, said on Sunday morning: “If the Assad regime has fallen, we welcome that news.” Kaya Kallas, the European Union’s high representative for foreign affairs, said: “The end of Assad’s dictatorship is a positive and long-awaited development. It also shows the weakness of Assad’s backers, Russia and Iran.”

The second part is indisputable. Assad’s fall is a blow to Vladimir Putin and to the Iranian regime. Setbacks to both are positive in the grand scheme of world politics, but neither is a guarantee of greater security in the region – or of greater welfare for the people of Syria.

Indeed, one of the consequences of the fall of Damascus that would have an immediate effect on Europe might be another wave of refugees – only this time, they will find that Angela Merkel is no longer the leader of the largest European country and prepared to welcome them.

Another side effect of the fall of Assad is that Israel’s security is further strengthened. It is not just Iran that is weakened by the advance of HTS, but Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia in Lebanon. This ought to allow space for the Israeli government to seek some kind of accommodation with the Palestinian population of Gaza and the West Bank free from the interference of outside powers seeking the elimination of what Iranian leaders refer to as “the Zionist entity”. Unfortunately, Benjamin Netanyahu does not yet face a sufficiently strong incentive to seek peace, as he continues to use the one-sided war in Gaza as an excuse for delaying his accountability to the Israeli people.

Let us join Ms Rayner and Ms Kallas, therefore, in welcoming the departure of Assad, while remaining clear-eyed about the prospects for peace, stability and the advancement of human rights in Syria. The most optimistic assessment is that the Syrian people had none of those things under Assad, whereas without him there is at least the possibility of progress.

The diminution of the influence of Putin and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is also welcome, even if the corresponding increase in the influence of the US, Turkey, the Kurds and possibly Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states does not make a political settlement easy.

We can only agree with Majed al-Ansari, Qatar’s foreign affairs ministry spokesperson, after the leaders of Arab states met in Doha on Sunday: “There is a tendency in the region for good news to turn into bad news. We would love to see a transition to a viable state that embodies the sacrifices of the Syrian people. We also know realistically that there are a lot of challenges.”

Let us hope that they can be overcome.