If you want a Final Say on Brexit, this is the time to hold your nerve

Next week MPs might muster only a derisory vote in favour of another referendum as many of their colleagues will be waiting for the right moment. That would not stop Theresa May claiming the idea had been completely rejected

Andrew Grice
Wednesday 23 January 2019 14:26 GMT
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Jeremy Corbyn says Labour could campaign for Final Say referendum if general election not possible

To judge by the headlines, you might think the campaign for a Final Say referendum is in disarray, divided within itself and at war with Jeremy Corbyn’s team. Yet appearances can be deceptive – and in this case they are.

It’s a good rule of politics that when a group is under sustained attack, its opponents are worried about it. Indeed, the above statements are a back-handed compliment to the cross-party People’s Vote campaign. A year ago, it was portrayed by much of the media as a fringe group of obsessive Remaniacs who had no chance of securing their objective. Today, a Final Say referendum is at the heart of the Brexit debate and a serious runner for the moment when MPs finally make a decision.

William Hague, the former Tory leader who opposes a referendum, admits the chances of one are now “quite high”. George Osborne, the former chancellor, told the BBC today the choice is now between a delay to the Article 50 process followed by either an alternative to Theresa May‘s deal or a referendum, or a no-deal exit on 29 March. Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, countered that delaying or cancelling Brexit would be a “calamitous” breach of trust that would be worse than a no-deal departure.

When The Independent launched its Final Say campaign in July, other media outlets were sniffy. This morning the Financial Times, which previously backed May’s deal, said: “Should parliament reach deadlock, the public should instead be asked whether they still want Brexit.” And The Times conceded that “a second referendum looks increasingly like the only way to break the parliamentary deadlock”.

Of course, a referendum is not a step to be taken lightly. Neil Basu, the UK’s most senior counterterrorism police officer, warned that the “febrile” atmosphere around Brexit could be exploited by far-right extremists, saying people could be radicalised by it. “We saw a spike in hate crime after the [2016] referendum, that’s never really receded,” he told the BBC. In my view, this does not weaken the argument for another public vote. The far right will always find something to exploit. Are we going to cancel the next general election too?

On Monday I watched May tell the Commons that a referendum could “damage social cohesion”. My first thought was that this genie was let out of the bottle in 2016, my second that the no-deal exit she refuses to rule out would certainly damage social cohesion. Her words were a sign that she, too, knows a referendum is possible. In effect, she was inviting MPs to reject the idea when they vote on possible amendments to her agreement next Tuesday.

The prime minister would be delighted if they did so. That should make MPs who support a referendum pause for thought. Some tell me they will press for a vote on a pro-referendum amendment next week. “We have waited long enough,” was how one put it.

But they would be wise to be patient a little longer. They might muster only a derisory vote next week, because other referendum backers will wait for the right moment. “It would be better to get 30 votes in favour than 130,” one argued, but that would not stop May claiming the Commons had comprehensively rejected the idea. A referendum is not a specific Brexit option. May’s deal and the alternatives – a Norway or Canada-style agreement, a customs union and a no-deal exit – should be eliminated first.

Referendum supporters can win. But the reality is that many MPs will support a Final Say only as a last resort. More will be prepared to do so if May continues her cynical game of keeping no deal in play to pressurise MPs to back her agreement. Otherwise, the pro-referendum vote probably peaks at 200, well short of the 320 needed for a majority.

To win, the People’s Vote campaign will also need either the Labour or Tory leadership to whip their MPs to vote for a referendum. May’s statement confirms she will not do so voluntarily. So it all depends on Corbyn.

His amendment for Tuesday’s debate flashes a bit of leg to Labour’s overwhelmingly pro-Remain, pro-referendum membership by mentioning the public vote, which the party conference endorsed last autumn if Labour failed to secure an election.

But only a little bit. Corbyn is far from convinced about a referendum. Some Labour frontbenchers threaten to resign if he proposes a public vote. Like May, Corbyn plays for time, and hopes that something turns up. He doesn’t want to scupper Brexit, but the time may soon come when he must support a referendum to avoid the equally dangerous charge that it was he who helped Brexit over the line.

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