Ukraine’s Eurovision win may be a victory for Crimean Tatars, but will the world take much notice?

Is the wider world’s interest in this regional conflict fading?

At the end of February two years ago, the Tatars of Crimea held a demonstration outside the regional parliament in Simferopol in the wake of the Maidan protests in Kiev. They chanted anti-Russian slogans and belted out the Tatar national anthem, “Ant etkenmen” (“I Pledge To My Country”)

There was a counter-demonstration by ethnic Russian Crimeans; there was a brief outbreak of violence and the parliament building was stormed. The next morning, we woke up to find Russian soldiers in uniforms without insignia, the “little green men”, had taken over the parliament and other strategic location. A referendum, boycotted by Tatars and ethnic Ukrainians, voted for unification with Russia. A celebration concert was held at the central square in Simferopol with songs of the Red Army and also a rendition of “Back in the USSR”.

The singing of “Ant etkenmen” at public rallies is now banned in Crimea, along with other expressions of Crimean Tatar or Ukrainian nationalism. Tatar activists have been arrested; some have disappeared. The former mayor of Bakhchysarai, the historic capital of the Tatar Khanate in Crimea, is facing criminal charges for stating his belief that Crimea remains an integral part of Ukraine.

Thus, Saturday’s Eurovision Song Contest win by Jamala, a Crimean Tatar representing Ukraine, with a song about the deportation of the community by Stalin, is being regarded as a political victory for Tatars. Lemur Islyamov, an exiled Crimean activist declared: “It is a defeat for Putin and a crushing one at that.” The Ukrainian MP and journalist Mustafa Nayyem noted that Jamala had beaten the Russian entry, which had been a favourite to win: “the same Russians who took away the motherland of this daughter of the Crimean Tatar people.”

It is surprising that a political song was allowed to break into the stultifying blandness of Eurovision. The singer Jamala had made clear her song was political and that she personally knew Crimean Tatars who have disappeared since annexation by the Kremlin. The 2009 Georgian entry, “We Don’t Wanna Put In”, was disqualified because of its reference to Russia’s President, and last year Armenia had to change its lyrics to the song “Don’t Deny” because it was deemed to refer to the Turkish refusal to recognise the massacre of Armenians in 1915 as genocide.

What happened at Eurovision does not mean, however, that Western European states are about to get serious about Crimea. In reality, Vladimir Putin has managed to establish a frozen conflict in Ukraine. The West is losing interest and there is irritation at the failure of the Ukrainian government of Petro Poroshenko to tackle endemic corruption. And, with the need for the Kremlin’s help over Syria, the time may come, sooner than expected, when sanctions imposed against Russia are eased.

In the euphoria after Jamala’s Eurovision win, the Ukrainian historian Voldymyr Viatrovich hoped that Ukraine will stage the 2017 Eurovision contest at Sebastopol and urged “Ukrainian forces and Nato to start preparing for the festival now”. The Russian Black Sea Fleet was giving a concert the last time I was in Sebastopol; that is the more likely scenario in the future.