Trump’s recent trade dealings with Mexico and China have been smoke and mirrors with little substance

Politics Explained: The president is acting tough when it comes to making deals but he may come to regret it

Donald Trump has multiple problems when it comes to trade, both domestic and foreign, and Mexico is at the centre of a number of them.

Domestically, Trump is supposed to have already had a win. His administration negotiated a replacement trade agreement with Canada and Mexico known as the USMCA. Trump, as you might expect, called it a “great deal”, but the issue is that Democrats in Congress want changes and the legislation has not been scheduled for a confirmation vote in the House of Representatives yet.

The president is clearly anxious that he has not had a “win” in a while and the delay on the USMCA has put pressure on his international dealings. Trump has sought to build his political reputation on being a dealmaker and he has yet to follow through.

Tariffs are his weapon of choice and he clearly believes in the power they hold to bring countries to the negotiating table, but he appears willfully blind to the damage they can cause and the political strife they can bring.

Last week Trump backed off a threat to impose additional 5 per cent tariffs on Mexico, which would increase each month. That spat is over immigration and Trump trying to force Mexico into reducing the number of refugees and migrants from Central America that are making it to the US border. But that threat also puts the progress of the trade deal, which also has to be ratified by the other two nations, at risk. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau – who is set to meet Trump in Washington on 20 June – will not take kindly to Trump pushing another trade deal partner around.

Mexico is also part of the president’s international issues. It is obvious that Trump is growing frustrated at the lack of progress in coming to a wider trade deal with China. Retaliatory tariffs from both sides are hurting both countries and Beijing is not budging as quickly as the president would like.

Touting a “secret” immigration deal with Mexico is part of Trump’s political theatre, that plays to his supporter base. It also allows him to take a victory lap when he announces the agreement, despite the fact that much of it has already been revealed by Mexican officials.

In reality, it is the USMCA deal that would give Trump the most kudos, particularly given that the stalemate with China is unlikely to end soon without a compromise from Washington. Hence why the president’s top economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, told CNBC in recent days that enacting the pact is “more important” for the US economy than a deal with China.

When it comes to Beijing, Trump says “I have no deadline” to make a deal, but he would not expect anything less than is already in place.

“We’ll figure out the deadline,” Trump said at the White House on 12 June. “Nobody can quite figure it out.”

That about sums up Trump’s recent trade dealings, a lot of smoke and mirrors and not much substance.