Will the private government messages MPs demanded on why Boris Johnson suspended parliament ever be revealed?

The government is adamant it will continue to ignore a demand it dismissed as ‘unprecedented, inappropriate, and disproportionate’

On Monday, the House of Commons passed a binding resolution ordering the government to release a tranche of internal messages relating to Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament. On Wednesday, the government refused.

MPs had demanded emails and messages between nine government advisers, among them Dominic Cummings, Boris Johnson’s top aide, and Nikki da Costa, the prime minister’s head of legislative affairs.

They were trying to prove that Boris Johnson’s reason for suspending parliament was to stop MPs debating Brexit – and was not, as ministers say, simply a routine move ahead of a Queen’s Speech next month.

Such a revelation, if it came, would be explosive. It would prove that Boris Johnson lied to MPs and the public about his real reason for proroguing parliament. But perhaps more seriously still, it would suggest he misled the Queen when he asked her to order the suspension.

No wonder, then, that ministers decried the attempt to have the messages published. Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, told those behind the move that it was “unprecedented, inappropriate, and disproportionate”. Releasing the correspondence would, he said, be illegal under data protection and human rights laws, and against the “basic principles of fairness”.

That will not satisfy MPs. The “humble address” motion passed by the Commons is legally binding, meaning ministers face being found in contempt of parliament if they do not comply with it. But parliament has, of course, already been suspended, meaning any contempt proceedings cannot be brought until MPs return – currently due to be in early October.

A similar series of events played out last December, when Theresa May’s government refused to publish the full legal advice given to ministers on the Brexit deal she had negotiated with Brussels. After the Commons decided that her government had acted in contempt of parliament, May eventually backed down.

It is safe to assume that Johnson will not. His government has already ridden roughshod over the constitution, suspending parliament, questioning the impartiality of judges, threatening to “sabotage” legislation, and providing wildly contradictory information about crucial government documents on the risks of a no-deal Brexit.

In normal times, a government would fear being found to have acted in contempt of parliament – it would be a major blow, undermining the prime minister’s credibility, the legitimacy of the government and the very constitutional norms by which the UK political system works. Now, it would be just another bump in the road.

So will the messages ever see the light of day? It looks highly unlikely. The government is adamant that it will not release them. Cummings himself has previously been found to be in contempt of parliament after refusing to give evidence to a select committee. The charge does not appear to be one that particularly bothers this administration.

MPs could try to launch a legal challenge, but the courts are unlikely to intervene to adjudicate on a matter relating to parliamentary affairs rather than the law. Judges have previously been clear that questions of internal parliamentary processes are an issue for parliament, not the courts.

Many in Westminster believe that this is all part of a No 10 strategy ahead of the election that is expected to take place later this year. The more Johnson is seen to take on the so-called establishment – especially parliament and the courts – the more he can portray himself as standing on the side of the public against an elite that, he will claim, is intent on trying to frustrate Brexit.

With many voters increasingly angry over parliament’s failure to approve a Brexit deal, the prime minister’s latest battle with MPs will not come as a concern to Tory strategists.

MPs will inevitably continue to push for the correspondence to be released in a bid to reveal the discussions that led to Johnson taking the extraordinary step of suspending parliament. For all their efforts, we may simply never know for sure why he did so.