Brexit: Britain unlikely to leave EU by end of March, top forecaster predicts

Now 30 per cent chance of Final Say vote, according to Economist Intelligence Unit

The UK is unlikely to leave the European Union as scheduled on 29 March, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has predicted.

The respected forecasting group said it expects Prime Minister Theresa May will lose the crucial vote on her Brexit deal on Tuesday, and the government will then be forced to request an extension to Article 50.

Crashing out without a deal is deemed the least likely outcome, according to the EIU forecast, which put the probability of a no-deal exit at only 5 per cent. The EIU believes Brussels will agree to an extension, meaning Britain will remain in the trade bloc beyond the planned exit date.

The forecaster said there was a 40 per cent chance Mrs May’s deal would eventually be approved by parliament in a subsequent vote, should the prime minister gain further assurances from the EU.

There is now a 30 per cent probability of a second referendum being called to break the political deadlock, according to the EIU forecast. The longer the impasse lasts, the more likely a Final Say vote will be used to give one particular plan “legitimacy”.

Danielle Haralambous, UK analyst at the EIU, explained: “Time is simply running out, and we’re at a stage where Brexit can probably only happen in late March now, in the unlikely event that parliament approves Mrs May’s deal on January 15th or if parliament supports leaving without a deal.

“For all other options the government will need to buy more time, and we think the EU will be willing to provide it to avoid a cliff-edge situation.

“Ms May and her government are not prepared to run down the Article 50 clock and leave the EU without a withdrawal agreement and transition arrangements in place, although this remains a possible Brexit outcome later in 2019.”

Ms Haralambous added: “However, delaying Brexit does not remove the downside risks to the process. With the time it has bought the government can pursue a new plan, but it will still be working towards a deadline to resolve the same deep political divisions over what Brexit should look like.

“In our view, the longer this political deadlock lasts the higher the probability of a second referendum to break it and give the UK government popular legitimacy to pursue one of the potential options.”

Meanwhile, a cross-party group of anti-Brexit politicians has published proposed legislation to bring about a second referendum. The draft bill recommends that the public be asked whether they want to remain in the EU or leave under the prime minister’s deal.

The legislation could be introduced through the House of Lords under plans being considered by the group. The MPs recommend the ballot paper be worded: “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union on the negotiated terms?”

Tory MP and former attorney general Dominic Grieve said the bill provides an “escape hatch” if there is no majority in parliament for Ms May’s deal or the no-deal option.

The prime minister is expected to travel to Stoke-on-Trent, a strongly leave-supporting area, later on Monday to deliver a speech urging MPs to back her deal.

Additional reporting by Press Association