Election '97: Lib Dems feeling 'chipper' as polls rise in marginals

After weeks in the doldrums the Liberal Democrats are professing to feel 'chipper' about their electoral prospects.

Their private surveys show increasing support in key marginal constituencies and independent national polls are also nudging up in their favour.

But there is still some way to go before they reach the degree of support they attained in the last election. There is no hint as yet that the deep unpopularity of the Government has begun to rub off on the Liberal Democrats.

So while John Major and Tony Blair are characterised as Punch and Judy by the Liberal Democrats, perhaps Paddy Ashdown may now be offered the role of Mr Micawber.

Mr Ashdown's aides believe that voters are becoming increasingly nauseated by the adversarial antics of the two other party leaders, and say that the change of tactics by the Labour leadership towards a more positive campaigning style is an indication of how disenchanted the electorate has become.

The increased support reflected by national surveys is unspectacular. Whereas their ratings stood at around 12 per cent at the start of the campaign, their support now seems to be at the 14 per cent mark.

At the last general election they picked up 18.3 per cent of the vote, although the result was comfortably higher than most polls.

Ironically, the party is relaxed about the defection of Tory voters straight to Labour in some constituencies because it could allow them through in the middle. Torbay in the West Country and Hazelgrove, near Manchester, are examples.

Privately, the Liberal Democrats' aspirations are modest. Currently with 26 MPs, some senior officials believe they will be doing reasonably well to maintain that number. Some of the seats are disappearing because of boundary changes and two are held by defectors from the Conservative Party. But more optimistic apparatchiks believe a target of 30 to 35 is "credible." There are 50 target seats.

Geographically the Liberal Democrats are concentrating their resources to an even greater extent than the other parties. They are adamant that unlike their rivals they are not tailoring policies to suit any socio- economic group - the 70,000 members of Middle England in key marginals.

The Lib-Dems are portraying themselves as the one nation party bravely testing the social conscience of voters and challenging them to countenance a larger contribution to the Inland Revenue. These are policies that go down well with voters - or at least that is what people tell pollsters.

Party officials are taking comfort from their own canvassing returns which show the Liberal Democrats making steady progress. It is admitted, however, that electors often have to be reminded that it is not simply a toe-to-toe battle between Mr Major and Mr Blair before they register a preference for Mr Ashdown.