The battle against the drop in universal credit seemed lost – but it is not over yet

The temporary increase in universal credit has already come to an end, but the fight to restore it goes on, writes John Rentoul

Baroness Stroud, the Tory peer, is leading the rebellion against the cut in universal credit in the Lords (iStock/Getty Images)

Lower universal credit payments have already started to appear in people’s bank accounts, but the parliamentary fight against the end of the £20-a-week uplift goes on. It is still possible that rebel Conservative peers might force Boris Johnson to put the question to a vote in the House of Commons – something he managed to avoid until now.

Philippa Stroud, a Tory peer who was adviser to Iain Duncan Smith, the creator of universal credit, is expected to table amendments in the House of Lords today, and Nikki da Costa, who was director of legislative affairs at No 10 when Theresa May was prime minister, has explained how this could force the government to think again.

Labour MPs in the Commons voted against the cut in universal credit last month, but the motion wasn’t binding, and the Conservatives abstained, so we never got to find out how many Conservative MPs would have rebelled on the issue.

Now Baroness Stroud might have found a way to force a binding vote, by tabling an amendment to the Social Security (Up-rating of Benefits) Bill, which is currently going through the House of Lords. This is the bill needed to change the way the state pension is uprated because otherwise, it would rise by 8 per cent in line with average earnings, which have gone down and then up sharply as a result of lockdowns. Instead, the state pension is going to go up by 3 per cent next year, in line with prices.

Labour has agreed to fast-track the bill, and the House of Lords by convention does not obstruct “money bills” – legislation with public spending implications. So it seemed as if the fight was over. But Da Costa explains how there is a last-ditch tactic that could still send the question back to the Commons for a binding vote. The Lords could “try and hold the bill hostage”, passing an amendment that requires a vote of MPs before the bill comes into force.

This would require Labour peers in the Lords to go back on their word: they “signed up to fast-tracking the bill,” as Da Costa says, and would now be rowing back. But, given how strongly many Labour people feel about the cut to universal credit, and with the possibility of a historic defeat of the government in the Commons, it may be that Labour would withdraw its cooperation. The party is, after all, given some cover by the initiative being taken by rebel Tories.

If the Lords did send the bill back to the Commons, there is then the question of how Tory MPs would vote. In the past, I have assumed that, if Mark Spencer, the chief whip, put maximum pressure on his MPs to stay in line, he would see off the rebels, even if they do include former work and pensions secretaries Duncan Smith, Stephen Crabb, Damian Green and Esther McVey. But I suspect that the government would not like to take that risk especially as public opinion on the issue is more sympathetic to keeping the “temporary” uplift than it usually is to spending public money on higher benefits. The latest British Social Attitudes survey, published yesterday, found that more people think benefits are too low rather than too high for the first time in 20 years.

If Baroness Stroud’s procedural amendment succeeds, therefore, there is a high chance that the government would respond by offering a concession to the Tory rebels in both houses of parliament. Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, has already been in discussions with Therese Coffey, the work and pensions secretary, about a possible increase in universal credit in the Budget next Wednesday. The plan, to allow claimants to keep more of their wages as they earn more, wouldn’t help most of those who are losing out from the £20-a-week cut, but it might be enough to persuade Conservative MPs not to vote against the government.

Whatever happens to Baroness Stroud’s rebellion, the battle over universal credit is not over yet.