Inside Politics: Boris Johnson ‘cautiously optimistic’ on June lockdown lifting

The prime minister has reassured the 1922 committee of Tory backbenchers that ‘freedom day’ should go ahead as planned, writes Adam Forrest

Boris Johnson (PA)

Just we you thought you were out, they pull you back in. The cast of Friends have talked about their “awkward” and “emotional” reunion for the big comeback special. “How are we going to get through this … without crying our faces off?” asked Jennifer Anniston. Boris Johnson has been reunited with the awkward and emotional issues of Brexit and Covid. The PM would dearly love to move on to other things, but he keeps getting pulled back into the same old dramas – threats from unionists in Northern Ireland and local flare-ups of virus variants.

Inside the bubble

Policy correspondent Jon Stone on what to look out for today:

The private members’ bills ballot – a big annual event in Westminster – is taking place at 9am this morning. Transport secretary Grant Shapps will make a statement in the Commons on the railway shake-up at 11am. And Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove will be taking about union-saving efforts in the committee corridor from 2.30pm.

Daily briefing

CONFIDENCE IS A PREFERENCE: Ministers are said to be considering “diluting” the plan for 21 June by delaying the end of social distancing rules – as the number of cases of the Indian Covid variant rose to almost 3,000. But Boris Johnson still hopes it won’t be necessary to change his plan. The PM said there was “increasing confidence” that Covid vaccines are effective against all variants, and last night told the 1922 committee of Tory backbenchers that he was “even more cautiously optimistic than I was last week” about 21 June as “freedom day”. Health secretary Matt Hancock said surge testing and vaccinations would now be expanded to the hotspot areas of Bedford, Burnley, Hounslow, Kirklees, Leicester and North Tyneside. Infection rates in Bolton have now spiralled to more than 300 cases per 100,000 – despite the Herculean mass vaccination efforts. The majority of the 25 people in hospital in Bolton with Covid are unvaccinated, Hancock said, as he again urged everyone to book the jab. “This is on all of us – we are masters of our own fate.”

CREEPING DREAD: The use of violence to oppose the Northern Ireland protocol is not “off the table”, the Loyalist Communities Council (LCC) told a parliamentary committee on Wednesday. Anger over Brexit arrangements could “definitely creep over into violence”, the LCC chairman David Campbell told the Northern Ireland Committee. Fellow LCC member – 19-year-old Joel Keys – freaked everyone out by saying: “There are certainly certain circumstances where violence is the only tool you have left … The minute you rule violence out completely, you’re admitting you’re not willing to back up anything you believe in.” Tory MP Simon Hoare was briefly discombobulated. Gathering himself, the committee chair said: “That is an incredibly worrying and dispiriting answer.” Many commentators questioned the wisdom of inviting the LCC – an umbrella group that represents three outlawed paramilitary groups – to appear in the first place.

FARMERS MARKET FIGHT: Cabinet ministers are expected to meet this morning to smooth out a row over the prospective free trade deal with Australia. Boris Johnson is still very keen on the deal. But environment secretary George Eustice is said to have been “captured” by National Farmers’ Union chiefs – who fear British farmers will be hit hard by the plan to give their Aussie counterparts zero-tariff access to the UK market. Michael Gove is also worried about it. He may wish to point to the potential for the SNP to make merry with the issue. The SNP’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford claimed the UK government was getting ready to throw Scottish farmers “under the Brexit bus”. It comes as Nicola Sturgeon refreshed her cabinet in a post-election reshuffle. The most significant change sees veteran Angus Robertson put in charge of the push for indyref2. “When the crisis is over … Scotland must and will have the chance to choose its future,” said Sturgeon.

WHO’S THAT KNOCKING ON THE DOOR? The home secretary has said holidaymakers coming back from amber-list countries should expect a “knock on the door” when they return home. Asked by the Mail whether people could expect a visit from officials checking to make sure they are quarantining, Priti Patel replied: “Yes, people should. People will not go unchecked.” Senior Tory backbencher David Davis hates the idea, of course. He said it was “heavy-handed, and it won’t work”. Seven of the ten biggest UK travel companies are still selling breaks to amber-list destinations, despite government warnings against it, according to The Times. Boris Johnson insisted that amber trips are allowed only in “extreme circumstances” – but Keir Starmer said people were simply ignoring the “confused” guidance. “The government’s lost control of the messaging,” said the Labour leader. Skills minister Gillian Keegan added to confusion by saying was a matter of "personal responsibility” whether to go amber this summer.

TRAIN IN VAIN? The government has revealed its plan to reform the railways – the biggest shake-up since privatisation in the 1990s. A new state-owned body called Great British Railways (GBR) will be set up to manage timetables and prices, as well as managing the country’s rail infrastructure. Boris Johnson insisted it would make a real difference and create “a rail system the country can be proud of”. But GBR won’t replace Network Rail until 2023, according to the white paper. Meanwhile, the Lords Public Services Committee has released a report saying Johnson’s “levelling up” plans needed to be properly focused on deprived areas. The committee called for greater transparency on spending to avoid the impression money is being funnelled into Tory constituencies. Speaking of inequality, the countries top civil servants are even posher than in the 1960s, according to the Social Mobility Commission. The system favours those with the “right accent”, according to the SMC report. I’m shocked, and I’m sure you are too.

PAPERING OVER THE CRACKS: Boris Johnson is facing yet more embarrassment over the costly refurbishment of his Downing Street flat after it was reported that his “massively expensive” new wallpaper already peeling loose and curling at the corners. Whitehall gossip-merchants told the Mail that specialist decorators have been recalled to the apartment to rehang the “hand-crafted” £840-a-roll gold furnishing, the work of Soane Britain interior decorator Lulu Lytle, who was spotted on site last October. Meanwhile, Keir Starmer faces far more serious potential embarrassment at the Batley and Spen by-election, with the party set to select its candidate this Sunday. Former Corbyn frontbencher Diane Abbott said Starmer should quit if his party loses the seat. He’s not the only one whose job appears under threat. Reports suggest Sir Graham Brady could be facing a challenge as chair of the powerful 1922 committee of Tory backbenchers. The intrigue never stops at Westminster.

On the record

“If he doesn’t want people to travel to amber list countries, why is he making it easier to do so? … We are an island nation. We have the power to stop this.”

Keir Starmer on Boris Johnson’s leaky border problem.

From the Twitterati

“Commons Committee offers loyalist extremists public platform to threaten terrorist violence in effort to overturn international treaty approved by UK parliament itself. Timed to boost UK government’s leverage ... Welcome to Brexitland.”

Prof Michael Dougan appalled by the LCC’s committee appearance...

“Loyalist paramilitary groups will exist for as long as funding is available to ‘encourage’ loyalist paramilitary groups to no longer exist.”

...while the Belfast Telegraph’s Allison Morris questions LCC funding.

Essential reading

Andrew Grice, The Independent: This is a dangerous moment for Boris Johnson – the vaccine honeymoon is over

Jeremy Corbyn, The Independent: We need to resist the government’s new immigration plan

Anoosh Chakelian, New Statesman: If the government travel plan is working, why is the Indian variant in the UK?

James Forsyth, The Spectator: David Frost on Brexit, Barnier and the backstop

Sign up here to receive this free daily briefing in your email inbox every morning