A vote for Sunak’s metro mayors is not a vote for him

Editorial: If the Conservatives hang on to Tees Valley and the West Midlands, it will be in spite of Rishi Sunak and his government, not because of them

(Dave Brown)

Although the results won’t be revealed until Saturday – and may, in any case, prove to be a poor guide to voting at the general election expected later in the year – the contests for the mayoralties of the West Midland and Tees Valley will attract huge attention.

Defended by Tory incumbents Andy Street and Ben Houchen respectively, these are the two major municipal prizes in contention, and the signs are that both will be close, especially in the West Midlands. For Labour, winning either or both would add confidence and momentum to the “long” general election effort; and for the Conservatives, the loss of these flagships would be an embarrassing blow, and a deeply damaging and dangerous one for Rishi Sunak.

Although, for a variety of practical reasons, the chances are that Mr Sunak will survive as leader and take his party into the general election, there is a significant chance that dramatic failure in this set of elections could end his political career, and lead to the installation of a new leader and prime minister – the fourth in five years. At the very least, there will be some existential rumblings in Mr Sunak’s party.