At a time when Vladimir Putin is asserting his brutal power ever more blatantly, when Ukrainian forces are being pushed back, and when the situation in Gaza is bleaker than ever, the British prime minister cannot afford to be distracted by the protest votes for a minority party in by-elections.
The Reform UK bandwagon may appear to be picking up speed. In Wellingborough, Ben Habib won 13 per cent of the vote and in Kingswood, Rupert Lowe won 10 per cent. This suggests that national opinion polls, putting the party on an average of 10 per cent, are accurate.
The prime minister has responded by launching an appeal for all voters who oppose a Labour government to unite behind the Conservative Party, making the argument that “a vote for anyone other than the Conservatives will just help Starmer”. That this is obviously true does not conceal Rishi Sunak’s desperation.
The Conservatives now face a difficult run-up to the general election expected in November. Labour has established a commanding lead, confirmed by the two by-elections, while Mr Sunak faces the defection of part of his core vote to Nigel Farage’s party.
This presents Mr Sunak with a strategic dilemma: how to balance the fight against the Labour Party on one side and Reform on the other. It ought to go without saying that trying to appease Reform voters would be a mistake.
Reform is not the UK Independence Party of old. Whereas Ukip drew much of its support from Labour voters and had a statist economic policy to match, Reform looks much more like the Liz Truss fan club of small-state libertarians coming out of the Tory party. Mr Sunak seemed to recognise this by pitching his appeal to “everyone who wants lower taxes and secure borders”.
Of course, most people want both lower taxes and secure borders but the subtext of the prime minister’s words is clear: he is trying to appeal to the “tax cuts at all costs” tendency, and to those who want harsher rhetoric about asylum seekers, no matter how unworkable the actual policy.
We have to tell him that there is no point. These voters have not been weaned off unrealistic fiscal policies by the catastrophic failure of Ms Truss’s administration. They have not been won over by ever more emphatic claims about the Rwanda deportation policy – indeed, those claims have succeeded only in raising the salience of the problem of small boats.
However, Mr Sunak is justified in making the simple point that the choice at a general election is between him and Sir Keir Starmer as prime minister. Indeed, it is worth noting that Mr Farage has not returned to a leadership role in the party which also happens to be a company in which he is the majority shareholder. He accepted the logic of Mr Sunak’s argument at the last election when he stood down half of the Brexit Party’s candidates in order to avoid handing seats to Labour. That suggests that the Reform bandwagon may yet stall when the real choice has to be made.
Mr Sunak should in any case focus his energies on the centre ground of politics because that is where elections are won or lost. He needs to persuade soft Labour voters that his responsible management of the economy is the only way to provide the public services on which we all rely. He needs to show that he is not distracted by the fundamentalists on the right from the essential responsibilities of the UK government – at home or abroad.
The prime minister has shown leadership on the international stage by continuing Boris Johnson’s policy of standing firm against Putin’s aggression in Ukraine. He has worked hard, in contrast to his predecessor’s policy, to improve relations with the European Union. These are stances that have been denounced by the right-wing fringe but they are the right positions to take.
He may not succeed at the election but the one thing that would ensure disaster for the Conservative Party and the country would be to try to appease the unappeasable on the right wing of British politics.
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