Trump just made the biggest move of his presidency - and it's going to have untold repercussions

President has gambled and the nation will learn if he hit lucky

It’s said that a crisis can make the reputation of a leader. But it can equally destroy them.

People remember Winston Churchill for his defiance during the Second Word War, or Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s humane response to the Great Depression. Yet, there are just as many failures. George W Bush’s faltering reaction when Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans, allowed a natural disaster to swell into a tragedy nobody expected.

Now, Donald Trump, the 45th president, has stepped into the Oval Office and rolled the dice.

Having initially played down the threat presented by COVID-19, ignoring his own experts and airing his “hunches” about the likely mortality rate of the coronavirus, Trump has appeared on prime time television looking stern and – in the words of a television anchor – “terrified”.

“We will be suspending all travel from Europe to the United States for the next 30 days. The new rules will go into effect Friday at midnight. These restrictions will are be adjusted subject to conditions on the ground,” he said.

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He said there would be exemptions made for certain Americans “who have undergone appropriate screenings”.

He added: “These prohibitions will not only apply to the tremendous amount of trade and cargo, but various other things as we get approval. Anything coming from Europe to the United States is what we are discussing. These restrictions will also not apply to the United Kingdom.”

Officials later clarified the president was talking about travel to the US, and legal residents and citizens would not be prevented from withering the country. Nor would it apparently stop travel to Europe from Americans.

There were also reports that Trump did not mean to refer to cargo.

That ought not to downplay the scale of what Trump has done. In the hope of reassuring Americans and the financial markets, he has enforced the sort of travel restrictions not seen since 9/11.

The impact will be immediately clear. But it is likely to have huge disruption to trade and the travel industry.

Trump’s actions – and thence his reputation – will likely be measured by two metrics. Do they halt the spread of the coronavirus, and will they act to calm and reassure people rather than scare them beyond the degree they already are.

If it turns out he has made things worse rather than better by botching the details, it could well be the latter.

Almost certainly sooner rather than later, we will find out.