Record title just a matter of time for Schumacher

New year forecast: what to expect in the next 12 months

The disquiet in the Formula One paddock was palpable and ominous. Barely half of the 2002 season had been completed, yet rival teams and drivers were already acknowledging they held out little hope of stopping Michael Schumacher and Ferrari... in 2003.

Grand prix racing's political and commercial leaders became so concerned that they drew up a list of proposals to handicap the champions and revive the show. In the event, little more than a tinkering with the regulations was agreed and it is likely that they will, at best, merely delay the inevitable next time.

Last season Schumacher won a record-equalling fifth title in record time. In 2003 it may take him a race or two longer to beat Juan Manuel Fangio's standard, established in the 1950s.

A one-lap shoot-out should make qualifying a spectacle in its own right, and occasionally produce an improbable grid, while a new points system, rewarding the first eight rather than six, ought to bunch up the field and, just as importantly, encourage the smaller teams.

The demise of Prost and Arrows leaves only 20 cars, and the perception of a more competitive environment would be invaluable.

Both Williams BMW and McLaren-Mercedes are committed to producing more radical cars, recognising that the routine "step forward'' will not be enough. David Coulthard and Kimi Raikkonen have set impressive times testing McLaren's development car, but it is not expected to be ready until perhaps the fourth grand prix.

Prediction: Schumacher to make it four titles in a row and an outright record of six.