Plans for UK-Germany high speed rail services shelved due to ‘significantly changed economic environment’

Exclusive: Deutsche Bahn declines to say whether Brexit played a role in cancellation

Germany’s state rail operator has shelved plans for international high-speed services between London, Cologne and Frankfurt due to “changes” in the “economic environment”, The Independent has learned.

Deutsche Bahn (DB) said the services to London would now “not be on the agenda in the foreseeable future”, despite just last year saying they were “still interested”.

The company would neither confirm nor deny whether uncertainty caused by floundering Brexit talks had played a part in their decision to mothball the project, saying they did not want to wade into politics.

DB had already begun early preparations to run the trains, successfully obtaining an operating certificate to run services through the Channel Tunnel in 2013 and even going as far as to display one of its sleek InterCity Express (ICE) units at London St Pancras to drum up publicity.

A high-speed train running from London to Cologne on current infrastructure would take around three-and-a-half hours, with a London to Frankfurt service taking around four-and-a-half – roughly the same time as London-Edinburgh services.

The Times reported in March 2017 that officials at Eurotunnel, who run the infrastructure, had been told by DB that the services would be starting around 2020. DB told industry publication International Railway Journal at the time that they were “still interested” in running in “the medium-term” but declined to confirm a start date.

But a spokesperson for the publicly owned company now told The Independent: “ICE direct services to London will not be on the agenda in the foreseeable future.

We ask for your understanding that we won’t comment on political developments like Brexit.

Deutsche Bahn spokesperson

“The decisive factors are technical and economic reasons: the ICE BR 407 is not yet registered in Belgium and the economic environment has changed significantly as a result of the price competition with low-cost airlines.

“We ask for your understanding that we won’t comment on political developments like Brexit.”

One reason cited by the spokesperson, that its train model is not registered in Belgium, is technically correct – though similar trains are now used through the tunnel by Eurostar under a different brand name, meaning obtaining clearance to run them should not be difficult.

As well as the uncertainty caused by Brexit potentially affecting the services, there had been some speculation in the railway industry press that the relocation of financial services to Frankfurt from London after the UK leaves the EU could increased demand for a high speed rail link, with executives needing to travel back and forth at speed. This benefit does not yet appear to have materialised.

Eurostar’s e320 trains are technically similar to DB’s newer ICE trains, both being based on the Siemens Velaro family

In recent months Eurostar, which is majority owned by the French state railway company SNCF, has begun running services from London to Amsterdam via Rotterdam in the Netherlands. DB’s original plans for cross-channel services reportedly also involved running to Amsterdam, with the train splitting at Brussels and its two halves heading towards the Netherlands and Germany respectively. The two operators would potentially have been in direct competition on the Dutch route.

Eurostar has also faced difficulty with border control arrangements at Amsterdam and Rotterdam, with passengers currently having to change at Brussels for checks on the return journey because Amsterdam station lacks the right facilities. Boarding an international train in most of Europe is like boarding any other train, but Britain’s refusal to join the borderless Schengen area means continental stations with services to London must be specifically configured for passport control and security checks – with dedicated platforms physically walled-off from others as if they were a national border.

These physical changes to stations are not always possible and require significant investment that limits the ability to trial new routes.

The new e320 trains purchased by Eurostar are, unlike its old ones, capable of running on the overhead wires system used in Germany – though the company has not announced plans for any services there. Earlier this year a number of infrastructure companies announced they were interested in a rail operator coming forward to operate a London-Bordeaux service, but none has yet done so.

As track speeds increase in Europe, longer-distance high-speed services are being introduced – with operators successfully competing against airlines by offering comfortable and convenient services between city centres rather than outlying airports with onerous check-in procedures. Industry wisdom generally holds that train journeys of up to four hours are usually able to capture significant market share from flying, but some are even longer – with services between Paris and Barcelona taking around six and a half hours.

In the summer months Eurostar runs a seasonal service between London and Marseille, which takes a similar amount of time.