Brexit: JP Morgan says probability of UK staying in EU has risen to 40%

UK now appears to have the option of revoking unilaterally, economist says

The probability of the UK remaining in the EU is now 40 per cent, according to economists at JP Morgan.

They raised the likelihood of no Brexit from 20 per cent after the European Court of Justice’s advocate general said earlier this week that the UK could revoke Article 50 without the consent of the other EU states.

The pound jumped after the court’s opinion was issued, although analysts warned the currency is likely to stay volatile until the government votes on Theresa May’s Brexit agreement next week.

“The UK now appears to have the option of revoking unilaterally and taking a period of time of its own choosing to decide what happens next,” economist Malcolm Barr wrote in a research note.

“That time could be used to hold a second referendum on terms entirely decided by the UK.”

Earlier this year, JP Morgan said it was planning to move as many as 4,000 staff out of Britain if no Brexit deal was reached.

The bank said its plans for Brexit had gone “past the point of no return” in September.

“We are now in full execution mode,” Mark Garvin, vice chair of the group’s corporate and investment banking arm, said.

“We are in the very advanced phases of execution, in fact. A number of these initiatives are already in flight and in many cases we have passed the point of no return – they are happening.”