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Wales vs Italy predictions
- Italy to beat Wales – 5/2 with Betway
- Over 46.5 total points – 7/10 with BetMGM
- Monty Ioane to score an anytime try – 21/20 with SpreadEx
Italy have collected the Wooden Spoon in each of the last eight editions of the Six Nations but head to Cardiff on Saturday well placed to snap that streak at the expense of round five opponents Wales (2.15pm, BBC1).
Wales have struggled to get their act together in this year’s championship and are the only team to fail to register a win, leaving them in pole position to finish bottom of the standings for only the second time in the Six Nations era.
The new-look side has shown flashes of ability and flair, but when it has come down to getting over the line, they have fallen short.
While tactics and discipline are always important, a squad's mentality plays a massive part in international rugby. Wales held their own against France last week, but perhaps the belief was not there as they crumbled to a team hardly riding on the crest of a wave in the second half.
The Welsh will come into this match possibly doubting themselves but equally desperate to go out with a bang, and for whatever reason, rugby betting sites make them as short as 1/3 favourites to do so.
Don't rule out Italy upset
It is challenging to fathom the reasoning behind how this match has been priced up in the Six Nations odds. The Welsh are probably capable of beating Italy, but Italy are undoubtedly capable of beating them. It looks like a reasonably balanced match, but the Azzurri will come into the game brimming with confidence.
Betting sites make Italy as big as 5/2 to win back-to-back games in Cardiff after their success in 2022, but if anything, the visitors should be the odds-on favourites in this Wooden Spoon showdown.
They are without the services of injured full-back Ange Capuozzo, which is a blow, but the starting team remains balanced. Wales have made five changes to the team that started against France in an attempt to find the right mix.
Italy’s head coach, Gonzalo Quesada, has moulded the young team superbly, and their tactical approach has been particularly encouraging. Mentally, they could not be in a better place. They have taken their game to another level and will be hungry for more after beating Scotland last week. They certainly have the potential to become an even more menacing opponent in world rugby.
A win for Italy, who have propped up the Six Nations table for more years than they care to remember, would see them record their best performance in the tournament since they won two matches in 2013.
They have been a joy to watch this year, and if a couple of things had gone their way in the earlier matches, they could be sitting pretty in the top half of the table. A three-point defeat to England in Rome could have swung their way, and they were desperately unlucky not to beat France in the 13-13 draw.
The win against Scotland last weekend was their first home Six Nations success for 11 years, and it was richly deserved. Despite a ferocious Scottish attack, they defended superbly well and did not lack flair going forward.
The Welsh will probably not be a pushover, but everything points to another success for a rampant Italian outfit. If the results in the other two matches go their way, Italy could still snatch third, which would really be a feat.
An alternative to betting on Italy to win the match outright is to bet on the handicap market. Bet365 are offering 11/10, with Italy getting a potentially generous seven-point start. But our preference is to back the visitors outright.
Wales vs Italy Tip 1: Italy to beat Wales – 5/2 with Betway
Potential for Cardiff points-fest
Both teams are prone to mistakes and equally adept at taking advantage of them, and the over/under market on gambling sites is one to consider. If Wales have a second-half collapse similar to the one against France, Italy could run in a fair few tries.
Wales will surely break the Italian defence down at least a couple of times at some stage of the game, and there will likely be some successful penalty kicks along the way.
It possibly points to quite a high-scoring match, and the value here lies with BetMGM, who offer 7/10 on the encounter producing more than 46.5 points. If the game opens up in the first half, that target will soon look very achievable.
Wales vs Italy Tip 2: Over 46.5 total points – 7/10 with BetMGM
Ioane to work his magic
The anytime try scorer market is not the easiest to predict, but for our third Wales vs Italy prediction, we look towards the brilliant Monty Ioane to work his magic for Italy.
He has only scored one try so far in this year’s tournament but is the sort of player who is always likely to be in the right place at the right time.
SpreadEx is alone in offering 21/20 on Ioane to score an try at anytime. He is shorter elsewhere, and it may be worth taking that bit of extra value on him scoring.
Wales vs Italy Tip 3: Monty Ioane to score an anytime try – 21/20 with SpreadEx
Six Nations free bet offers
Wales against Italy kicks-off a jam-packed Six Nations Super Saturday and for those punters look to have a bet on the action, there are free bets available from online betting sites.
Bet365's new customer offer rewards users with £30 in free bets when they deposit and bet a minimum of £10. To join, just sign up using the bet365 bonus code INDY2024 and make an initial deposit of £10.
To get the full £30 in free bets, you'll need to wager £10 or more on a sportsbook selection with odds of 1/5 (1.2) or greater. Once your bet is settled, you'll receive your free bet tokens to wager on the Six Nations or whichever sport you choose.
Bet365 also operate a couple of casino sites, featuring a huge selection of table and UK slots games.
Remember to check the terms and conditions of the sign-up offer before joining any new betting sites and if you do have a bet this weekend, please gamble responsibly.
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Last Updated: 15th March 2024, 04:01 PM
