Can Reform UK hit the Tories at the ballot box?

If it can build on Lee Anderson’s defection, Nigel Farage’s former party could even beat the Tories in share of the vote, says Sean O’Grady

Lee Anderson announcing his defection from Conservatives to Reform UK on Monday (Getty)

Opinion polls will soon give us some idea of the electoral impact of Lee Anderson’s journey from deputy chairman of the Conservative Party to Reform UK’s first MP. As big as news of his defection was, it’s probably not going to move the political dial much further, but it might help Reform UK build some momentum in the coming months, eroding what’s left of the Conservative vote. On past evidence, the Budget won’t have boosted the government’s chances of winning a fifth term either. More defections, and grumbling about Rishi Sunak’s policies and leadership, might follow.

Will there be more defections?

There could well be. As Shakespeare put it: “When sorrows come, they come not single spies but in battalions.” The speculation is that a few – less than a half dozen – might switch, if only because they think they have little to lose. Only two Tory MPs have thus far come out and called for Sunak to quit: Andrea Jenkyns and Simon Clarke, the latter of whom seems content to carry on as unofficial secretary of the Liz Truss Fan Club. Other potential recruits include Marco Longhi (Dudley North) and Jill Mortimer (Hartlepool), who’ve both recently defended Anderson, and perhaps Miriam Cates (Penistone) and Danny Kruger (Devizes). Interestingly, Hartlepool was where Reform UK party leader Tice stood in 2019 and won a creditable 25.8 per cent of the vote, and where he is due to stand again.

How low could the Tories go?

There is really no limit, given the state of the party and the volatility of the electorate. It is quite possible the Tories could slip back to around 18 per cent in the polls while Reform UK could nudge up to about 15 per cent, meaning that they’d be neck and neck given the usual three per cent margin of error in the polls. It’s possible that Reform UK could even overtake the Tories in the polls. They’d still get few, if any, MPs because their vote is too thinly spread.

In any case, recent by-elections point to a historic defeat for the Tories. The bigger the Reform UK vote, the worse it will be for Sunak and his candidates.

Could Reform UK win any seats?

It is unlikely, though not impossible. Anderson’s constituency will end up as a three-cornered scrap between Reform UK, Labour, and the substantial group of Ashfield Independents – all fighting for disaffected Tory votes. Anderson could emerge as the winner from an unpredictable campaign. Otherwise, Reform UK will have to pin its hopes on some traditional Labour seats such as Hartlepool or Barnsley, and the old Ukip strongholds around Clacton and Thurrock. Given their very different pitches and target seats, Reform UK (founded by Nigel Farage as the Brexit Party) and George Galloway’s Workers Party won’t collide in many places. For Reform UK, the 2024 election will be about building up some solid second places for the future.

What is Reform UK’s future?

It is likely to remain a party of the airwaves. If lucky, they’ll win one or two seats at the general election, and then score some by-election wins on the back of the inevitable mid-term unpopularity of the next administration. It’s possible that Reform UK and the Conservatives could even unite as a pragmatic right-of-centre alliance, but the differences are so deep (and hatreds so deep) that this seems unlikely.

As with Ukip and the Brexit Party before, Reform UK’s main role won’t be as a prospective party of government but as a catalyst to reshape the Tories. After all, that is what Ukip and Farage were doing from about 2005 until David Cameron was forced into promising the 2016 EU referendum. But Farage wasn’t satisfied with that.

What is the Conservative Party’s future?

The Conservative Party has tasted defeat before, and been out of office for long periods, most recently during the 13-year New Labour hegemony. It could conceivably finish third in Commons seats, behind the Liberal Democrats, at the next election, and perhaps suffer their lowest vote share since the dawn of the modern party system in 1832.

An optimistic view would have the defeated party undertake a marked shift to the centre, drawing the appropriate lessons from a decisive Labour victory. A Starmer government, having to disappoint voters with tough but inevitable decisions, might only last one term if there is a competent opposition.

Such a turnaround was achieved after the Labour parliamentary landslides in 1945 (with Conservatives returning in 1951) and 1966 (back in 1970). The more likely prospect is of a protracted civil war and a dance of death with Farage and Reform UK over the right to lead Britain’s right as the 2030s approach. If there is a realignment on the right, with Reform UK effectively making a reverse takeover of the enfeebled Conservative Party, the new party wouldn’t necessarily be a success; if the two groupings continue to fight each other for an ageing constituency of hard-right voters, an even longer spell in the wilderness awaits. The next Conservative – “National Conservative” or “Reform Conservative” – prime minister of Britain might still be at school.