Could the Robert Fico shooting lead to a wider conflict in Europe?

The attack on the Slovak prime minister contains shades of 1914, writes Mary Dejevsky. But will it lead to a similarly catastrophic outcome for the continent – or will it remain a purely domestic atrocity?

Slovakian prime minister Fico was shot in an attempted assassination on Wednesday (AP)

What was clearly an attempt to assassinate the Slovak prime minister has prompted myriad theories as to why, and what the repercussions might be. And with no reliable information so far about any motive for the attack – the Slovak authorities described the accused gunman as a “lone wolf” who “did not belong to any political groups” – abundant space has been left for speculation to flourish.

Are we looking at an individual seeking to settle a personal grievance, that would cause few ripples beyond this corner of Eastern Europe? Or, as some of the more ambitious flights of fancy would have it, at an act akin to the shooting of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo, which is credited with setting off the First World War? Or indeed something in between?

The details that have emerged so far would allow for any or all of the above. Robert Fico, who became Slovakia’s prime minister for the third time after his party gained the most votes in last autumn’s general election, is on record as saying that he feared an attack. He is a controversial figure in many respects.