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The Conservatives have spent the last week trying to undermine Ed Miliband’s credibility. They may have been hitting at the wrong target. Despite the attacks, Labour’s support has remained stable. The party’s average score in the polls is still at the 34 per cent level it has been throughout the last four weeks.
But Conservative support has dropped by two points to 32 per cent. The party is as far behind as it has been all year. Meanwhile, contrary to many a commentator’s assumptions, Ukip support has actually returned to the 15 per cent level the party was enjoying a fortnight ago.
The polls continue to disagree as to exactly how well Ukip is doing. But four of the six companies that polled both this week and last have registered an increase in Ukip support, and only one has found that it has dropped.
Ukip’s continuing strength is seriously damaging the Conservatives. On average, the polls suggest that 16 per cent of 2010 Conservative voters have switched to Ukip, while only 6 per cent of those who voted Labour in 2010 are backing Nigel Farage’s party. Although regarded as notorious by some, Mr Farage continues to enjoy considerable personal popularity, a popularity his performance in last week’s leaders’ debate did nothing to dent.
Show all 36 1 /36General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 4 May: Milibrand part 2 Russell Brand dramatically unveiled the second part of his interview with Ed Miliband, in which he agreed with the leader and then called on his YouTube viewers to vote Labour. David Cameron had described him as a "joke" who previously advocated not voting - but with Brand commanding more than a million YouTube subscribers that may come back to haunt the Tories.
General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 3 May: #EdStone Labour leader Ed Miliband unveiled Labour's pledges carved into a stone plinth in Hastings. He said it showed his commitment to keep promises - but many mocked the "risible" stunt and said it would be the "tombstone" for Labour's election hopes.
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General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 2 May: Ukip candidate suspended A Ukip candidate who described himself as “unapologetically politically incorrect pro-British” was suspended after suggesting Shadow Minister Luciana Berger had split loyalties because she is Jewish. In one Twitter message Jack Sen, standing in West Lancashire, said: “Protect child benefits? If you had it your way you'd send the £ to Poland/ Israel.”
Twitter/@jacksenukip
General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 1 May: 'It's all about my career... I mean country' Labour jumped on another David Cameron gaffe after the PM said on the campaign trail that the election was a “career defining” moment when he meant to say “country defining”. Ed Miliband's party pounced, saying the remarks were proof Mr Cameron “puts his career before the country”. “It’s all about Dave,” the party tweeted.
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General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 30 April: The Sun has got two hats on The Sun revealed who it was supporting in the election - both the Tories and, in Scotland, the SNP. While the UK edition of the newspaper called on the British public to vote Conservative so as to "stop [the] SNP running the country", The Scottish Sun announced its support for Nicola Sturgeon's party saying it will "fight harder for Scotland's interests at Westminster".
General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 29 April: Complacent Conservative? Tory Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith failed to turn up to hustings in his own constituency following a 'late change in his schedule'. Wags observed that it was ironic given the minister has ramped up monetary sanctions against people who do not attend job interviews or JobCentre meetings.
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General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 28 April: Offensively independent An independent candidate standing in Northern Ireland proudly came up with the least 'politically correct' leaflet of the campaign. Susan-Anne White declared she would criminalise adultery and homosexuality, end sex education, reinstate corporal punishment and much more.
General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 27 April: NI minister 'homophobia' Jim Wells, the DUP Health Minister of Northern Ireland, resigned after saying children are more likely to be abused by gay couples. He had said: “You don't bring a child up in a homosexual relationship. That a child is far more likely to be abused and neglected.” He said he was standing down to spend more time with his family.
Paul McErlane/Getty Images
General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 26 April: The Ed and Boris bust-up In what was widely hailed as the best bit of election TV so far, Ed Miliband and Boris Johnson clashed head-to-head in angry scenes live on the Andrew Marr Show, forcing their usually genial host to intervene and tell the pair of them to "shut up". The increasingly animated London Mayor repeated personal attacks over Mr Miliband 'stabbing his brother in the back', while the Labour leader got in some jibes of his own about Mr Johnson's Eton education.
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General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 25 April: Political football David Cameron’s football-loving credentials received a kicking at a campaign event in Croydon after he suggested to the audience he supported West Ham- despite previously claiming he was a huge Aston Villa fan. When asked about his sudden change in loyalty, Cameron later said he was still a Villa fan and blamed the slip up on a 'brain fade'.
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General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 24 April: Migrant crisis made political Ed Miliband was branded 'shameful' by Downing Street after he said David Cameron was partly responsible for the deaths of hundreds of migrants in the Mediterranean. The Labour leader said the Prime Minister’s role in creating instability in Libya had contributed to thousands of north Africans drowning in the Mediterranean as they try to flee the crisis. A senior Tory called the comments 'deeply provocative'
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General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 23 April: IFS accusations Voters are being kept 'in the dark' by all the main parties over future spending cuts and tax rises, the influential Institute for Fiscal studies said. A detailed study of the party manifestos by the think-tank concluded that none of the Lib Dems, Labour, the Conservatives or SNP had provided "anything like full details" on plans to cut the deficit over the next five-year Parliament.
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General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 22 April: The not-so-Green Party A group of leading scientists and campaigners rounded on the Green Party, accusing it of turning its back on its main mission by largely ignoring the crucial issue of climate change in the run-up to the general election. Critics said that although the Green Party manifesto contains plenty of references to policies on global warming, the party was 'grievously at fault' for leaving the subject largely unspoken in campaigning by the party and its leader, Natalie Bennett.
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General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 21 April: Wikipedia edits Tory party chairman Grant Shapps was accused of editing the Wikipedia pages of his Conservative rivals and allegedly changing his own page to delete embarrassing references to his past. A Wikipedia administrator reported and suspended an account called 'Contribsx' on suspicion it was being used by Mr Shapps or 'someone acting on his behalf'.
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General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 20 April: Dodgy Tory donors? The Conservatives were forced to return more than £50,000 in donations from a businesswoman whose husband was convicted of tax fraud in the US. Beatrice Tollman, who donated £20,000 as recently as early April, was herself charged with conspiracy to evade millions of dollars’ worth of tax in the US, charges that were dismissed by a judge in 2008
General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 19 April: Miliband a hit among the hens Ed Miliband was described as "the stripper" by a group of women on a hen party in Chester after they spotted the parked-up Labour battle bus. But not everyone saw it as statesmanlike behaviour, some saying it was 'cringe-worthy' and others reporting he looked 'absolutely terrified'
YouTube/Chester Chronicle
General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 18 April: DUP on gay marriage A right-wing Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland politician thanked Nick Clegg for 'reminding' voters that they are seeking to abolish same-sex marriage. After the Lib Dems set up a satirical website accusing the DUP of wanting to 'reject gay rights', North Belfast MP Nigel Dodds said he was grateful to Mr Clegg 'for reminding people of the pivotal role the DUP can play'
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 17 April: Labour 'metaphors' A Labour candidate was forced to apologise for “getting carried away with colourful metaphors” after making a joke about being caught in a threesome with Ed Miliband and a goat. Clive Lewis, a former reporter for BBC Look East who is now standing in Norwich South, said "anything could happen" when asked if he could be beaten by the Greens. After the Miliband example caused a bit of a backlash he added: "If anyone was genuinely offended then I'm sincerely sorry for that."
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General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 16 April: Ukip candidate calls Islam 'evil cult' A Ukip candidate standing for Parliament faced being sacked by the party after describing Islam as an “evil cult”. Stephen Latham, who is fighting the West Bromwich East seat, made the remarks in a Facebook post. He later said: "I wouldn’t have meant it about Islam itself. It would have been about the people causing problems."
General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 15 April: Labour candidate 'forgets manifesto' A video emerged of a Labour candidate suffering a terrifically awkward 'brain fade' and failing to name her party’s key policies. During an interview with local website The Chiswick Calendar, Ruth Cadbury (running for Brentford and Isleworth) froze: "Um… I can’t remember my key… I do need to check… I’m reading them every day... er… sorry… Labour’s key policies..."
The Chiswick Calendar
General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 14 April: Tory candidate 'wristbands' There were calls and a petition for the Conservative parliamentary candidate for Cambridge to stand down, after she said that mental health patients could wear colour-coded wristbands to identify their conditions. Chamali Fernando was accused of showing 'prejudice' and 'remind[ing] us how far we have to go' by mental health campaigners
Twitter/Richard Taylor
General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 13 April: Smarter than a 10-year-old? Former PR man David Cameron is used to spinning his way out of trouble against the most challenging interviewers - yet came completely unstuck on a visit to a primary school for Newsround. With his guard down, 10-year-old Reema asked: 'If you could pick one politician apart from yourself to win who would it be and why?' Cameron said it was the 'best' question he'd had so far on the campaign, um-ed, ah-ed and failed to give a clear answer.
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General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 9 April: Ukip's porn star candidate A mini-scandal surrounded Ukip's Bristol branch when it emerged the vice chair had an unusual second job as a veteran porn star. The party insisted it was happy to support candidates regardless of what they did in their spare time, adding proudly that 'no other party' would have taken John Langley - aka 'Johnny Rockard'.
General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 8 April: Ed Balls on non-doms No sooner had Ed Miliband announced a popular Labour policy to scrap the non-dom tax status, a video emerged of Ed Balls explaining how such a move would end up costing Britain more.
General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 5 April: Tories taking care of business (owners) In an interview with this newspaper Danny Alexander, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, revealed that a senior Conservative minister told a Liberal Democrat cabinet colleague: 'You take care of the workers and we’ll take care of the bosses' in a private Whitehall meeting to discuss the Coalition Government’s priorities.
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General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 3 April: Nicola Sturgeon 'memo' Nicola Sturgeon was forced to deny telling the French ambassador she wanted the Tories to win the election in May in preference to Labour, after a 'memo' to that effect was leaked to the Telegraph.
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General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 2 April: Nigel Farage on HIV UKIP leader Nigel Farage sparked controversy during the ITV Leader's Debate 2015 for saying that immigrants who were HIV positive should not be able to enter the country and use the NHS for free.
Ken McKay/ITV via Getty Images
General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 29 March: Labour mugs Senior Labour MP Diane Abbott was among those who led a backlash against a mug being sold by the party celebrating its new commitment to a tough immigration system.
General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 23 March: Ukip's Atkinson expelled Janice Atkinson, an MEP and once one of Ukip's most senior figures, was expelled after she was found to have brought the party into disrepute. Ms Atkinson’s chief of staff was secretly recorded appearing to ask the manager of a restaurant in Margate to more than treble the £950 cost of a meal before Ukip’s spring conference. Nigel Farage later said the claims 'couldn't look worse'.
Chris Radburn/PA Wire
General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 8 January: 'Meet the Ukippers' Ukip councillor Rozanne Duncan was expelled from the party for saying she had a problem with black people because there was 'something about their faces' during filming for the BBC documentary 'Meet the Ukippers'
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General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 20 November: Emily Thornberry and the white van Labour front bench MP Emily Thornberry was forced to resign after tweeted a photo of a house in Rochester adorned with three England flags and a white van out the front, which saw her accused of holding working class voters in 'contempt'.
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General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 22 October: Ukip Calypso The former BBC Radio 1 DJ Mike Read was forced to apologise for "unintentionally causing offence" with his song Ukip Calypso and asked his record company to withdraw it. The song, which the Surrey-born disc jockey sang in a mock Jamaican accent, had been branded “racist”.
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General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 7 October: Forgetful Boris During his Ask Boris show on LBC prior to the Clacton by-election last year, the London Mayor was asked by Nick Ferrari who the Tory candidate was. Boris replied: "We've got a fantastic guy called - oh he’s brilliant… I don’t know... he is superb man .. Stirling? Girling? Something like that… what’s he called? You tell me." It was Giles Watling, Boris.
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General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 18 August: Janice Atkinson The senior Ukip MEP was forced to apologise after she was recorded by BBC South East Today describing a Thai constituent as 'a Ting Tong from somewhere'. It wasn't enough to see her disowned by the party - that came later when she was caught in a newspaper sting relating to expenses
Facebook/Maria Pizzey
General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 16 May (2014): Nigel Farage on LBC Nigel Farage's car-crash performance on LBC was one of his worst in recent years, and culminated in him saying he would be 'uncomfortable' with a Romanian family moving in next door. The gaffe later saw Ukip take out a full-page newspaper advert insisting it was not a racist party.
General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 20 March (2014): 'Patronising' Grant Shapps Grant Shapps, the Conservative chairman, came under pressure from across the political spectrum after a 'patronising' tweet in which he suggested Budget measures to halve bingo tax and cut the price of beer by 1p would 'help hardworking people do more of the things they enjoy'
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According to YouGov his overall approval rating is better than that of his rivals and he is the leader most likely to be regarded as in touch with ordinary people’s concerns. He remains highly popular amongst Ukip supporters themselves. If the Conservatives are to win back the voters they have lost to Ukip, they will need at some point to turn their firepower on Mr Farage.
But if Ukip support is holding up, that for the Greens is not. Their vote has slipped a point for the second week in a row and now stands at just 4 per cent.
Much of the earlier rise of Green support came at the Liberal Democrats’ expense, and the fall now may well help explain why Lib Dem support has edged up a point to 9 per cent.
Indeed, the Lib Dems could still have a pivotal role in the next parliament. The latest polls point to Labour winning 302 seats – enough for Mr Miliband to form a government with the help of 20 Lib Dems, and not need the help of 48 nationalists.
In the meantime, as they currently head for just 262 seats, the Conservatives have plenty of catching up to do.
John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University
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